Transformers: Age of Extinction is your repeat winner, matching the two previous Transformers with back-to-back victories. However, the news isn’t all good. Through the first five days Transformers: Age of Extinction has made over $120 million, but that’s behind every other film in the franchise, plus it’s a whopping $42 million behind the 2011 version. It would seem the bloom is finally off the rose, even though it’s clear the worldwide box office will be there in a big way, especially with that third Hong Kong act bringing in a massive Chinese audience. I’ve got it coming back in at $47 million, a not too shabby 53 percent drop.
Tammy looks like clear second-place finisher, barring some sort of hidden awareness miracle. The budget looks to be around $20 million, so if it brings in my predicted $27.7 million this weekend it has a chance to break even. I don’t see anything happening in the international marketplace, and Tammy lunchboxes won’t be coming soon to a store near you. It’s also massively mis-marketed, which means those folks who do pay might not be so effusive. All in all, not a lot of good things on the horizon for Tammy.
Earth to Echo also seems D.O.A., strange for a children’s film this time of year. But Relativity Media hasn’t mounted a serious enough marketing campaign to catch anyone’s interest, especially for a non-franchise CGI special. I have it over-performing the three-day weekend at $9.6 million, but only because the money has to go somewhere. Doesn’t it? That theory seems to be losing steam here in 2014.
Lastly, Deliver us From Evil. It’s not beloved among the critirati, but Brad liked it well enough, and he’s a stickler for good horror. $21.3 million is my call, because when was the last horror that made any money? Oculus? The horror crowd is hongry, and they’re gonna eat this weekend. Oh yes, it will be a veritable Independence Day feast.
A slightly abridged Oracle this week as I’m packing for a trip. Hoping to see Snowpiercer this weekend, and looking forward to seeing how you feel this will all play out. Last year over the July 5-7 weekend the top 12 made nearly $230 million, while I’ve got this one coming in at a paltry $140 million. It’s been a strange summer!
Current Record: 29-67-5 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Note: Below is the four-day tracking, while my predictions are for the three-day weekend. Beware!
- Tammy: $29 million
- Deliver us from Evil: $15 million
- Earth to Echo: $9 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
