After a week that followed the Golden Globe Awards and included the 2014 Oscar nominations, Critics Choice Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards and Producers Guild Awards what can we take away when it comes to attempting to predict the winners at the 2014 Oscars? Depending on how you look at it, a little to not much at all. Let’s have a look…
Best Picture
After American Hustle and Gravity led the Oscar nominees with ten each, which included four acting nominations for Hustle and a boat load of tech noms for Gravity it seemed the logical was sorting itself out. Hustle would continue to be 12 Years a Slave‘s closest competition for Best Picture, Slave would remain frontrunner with Gravity playing the possible spoiler. This theory was aided when 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards.
Then came the Screen Actors Guild Awards, where American Hustle took home the Best Ensemble award while being shut out in all the other categories, which lead to the Producers Guild Awards on Sunday suggesting the winner may finally give us a concrete idea of which film would win… then they offer a tie.
“A tie is what you wear around your neck,” Chiwetel Ejiofor was quoted saying as the PGA awarded both Gravity and 12 Years a Slave the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. Ties, it would seem, are becoming increasingly familiar as the Los Angeles Film Critics also couldn’t make up their mind, naming the Best Film of 2013 Her and Gravity.
While it would seem to offer no real clues, I think the tie continues to support the idea 12 Years a Slave is your Best Picture frontrunner while Gravity is your frontrunner for…
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron has won at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards and should he win with the Directors Guild, I think it, at the very least, sews up this category, though Best Picture heat surrounding Gravity isn’t likely to end until the envelope is opened depending on how Oscar night plays out.
Best Actor
The race for Best Actor seems to slowly be deciding itself as Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) seems near impossible to stop winning at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG awards over Chiwetel Ejiofor. I wouldn’t go calling the category a lock just yet, but it’s looking more and more like McConaughey will be adding one more statue to his mantle at the beginning of March.
Best Actress
I’m not sure it’s even worth discussing this category any longer, now that the nominations are out. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) is winning.
Best Supporting Actor
Another category that seems to be entirely locked up as Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) is about as sure a thing as Blanchett.
Best Supporting Actress
Two of the best moments from the past few days have been the acceptance speeches from Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) who still faces stiff competition from Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), but her SAG win was a big boost to her chances.
Best Original Screenplay
With screenplays for Her, American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Nebraska and Dallas Buyers Club to consider we simply have to wait until February 1 when the Writers Guild announce their awards where, unlike the Adapted category, all five nominees were eligible and nominated. My current prediction is Her, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see any one of these screenplays win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Of the nominees, the screenplays for 12 Years a Slave and Philomena were not eligible for a WGA nomination. The three others — Before Midnight, Captain Phillips and The Wolf of Wall Street — were eligible and were nominated. Should the WGA announce one of those three as their winner, and they likely will, this could be a little bit more of an interesting race, though my money is still on John Ridley‘s screenplay for 12 Years a Slave to go home the winner.
That does it for now. The voting deadline for the Directors Guild Awards is this Friday and the winners will be announced Saturday night. You can find my complete awards schedule right here and all my 2014 Oscar predictions in all 21 categories right here.
