Welcome to the first weekend of a new year of box office predictions, which means while final numbers for the 2013 RopeofSilicon Box Office Challenge are still being tallied, you can now get in on a brand new year of competition as we have 12 months ahead of us for you to rack up some points.
As for this first weekend, Frozen is the title I’ll throw out as the winner this time around, after three weeks off I now like its chances against The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. If Smaug did pull off the four-peat, it would be the first time since the original Hunger Games from April of 2012, but if you look at precedent the original The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey had the same opportunity coming into 2013 and came up short. As for Frozen, it’s in the black, and it would be even healthier if they didn’t spend $150 million on production. This weekend I forsee another $20 million being added to the coffers of the little Disney film that could.
The only new title this weekend is Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. Aren’t these films on a downward slope? I say they are, and the fourth title dropping off 30 percent from the third proves my point. This is also the first January Paranormal; never a good sign. As there’s no tracking — it’s hard to find people still working this week — I’m going limbo low with $16.3 million. I’ll be hitting refresh on RopeofSilicon.com to see if y’all go over or under.
Next, I’d like to predict The Wolf of Wall Street, mostly because it seems to be generating the most conversation. Does the C+ CinemaScore mean people won’t recommend it to friends? Or does it mean people didn’t like the main character, Jordan Belfort, which seemed to be the film’s goal? I’m being punitive with my dip, 44 percent, bringing the movie in at a paltry $10.4 million.
Truthfully, there’s not another super interesting title to look at, so let’s go with The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, the only other film on its sophomore weekend. They spent $90 million here, clearly too much, and it already seems to be fading fast, with only $7.9 million coming over the next three days. I don’t see too many reasons to be bullish on this title, other than perhaps the family friendly PG rating.
I’m spent for today, let’s get your 2014 started right with some accurate predictions!
NOTE: The final two weekends of 2013 have not yet been updated as final numbers have not yet completely released for either weekend. So it will be an interesting year end update once actuals for both weekends finally arrive.
Current Record: 0-0-0, 2013 finished at 39-64-1 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones: N/A
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
