Gravity is your repeat victor this weekend, and I’m only dropping it 45 percent for a $30.7 million second weekend based on that “A-” CinemaScore and the sparkling 97 percent RottenTomatoes rating. I wouldn’t be surprised to see even a 38 percent, so this might be the rare time when going over my prediction makes sense. What can I say, I’m usually too hopeful about our cinema economy.
Next up, Captain Phillips. With regards to box office, there are a preponderance of questions surrounding Tom Hanks‘ latest film. Do people already know the story? And what financial comparison do you throw out here? United 93? Zero Dark Thirty? Black Hawk Down? Truly, I can’t remember too many other films involving Somali pirates and Tom Hanks. Even thematically it’s an outlier, not quite patriotic, but not nearly pro-piracy either. Prediction-wise, and just like last week, I’m going above tracking with a healthy $25.8 million call. There’s probably not much upward momentum above that number, but one would have thought that of Gravity as well.
Machete Kills, on the other hand, looks to be fully doomed. The first version opened at $11.4 million, decent enough given the budget, so why would the sequel open lower? General apathy. The trailers look like more of the same, only the first one was trading on being a throwback homage. Tough to pull that off twice, so I’m feeling bearish here and only going as high as $8.6 million (Note: I originally posted this number as a way too low $3.6 million, clearly a typo on my part, my apologies.). Your thoughts may vary.
A limited release challenge for you in the form of Romeo and Juliet. My math is straightforward, 450 theaters, $2,000 per, that gets me to $900,000. I’m basing that number on how Much Ado About Nothing, the 2013 version, did once it hit 200 theaters ($3,655 per). As this looks to be about half as good, tops, I’m going low. You’ll have to limbo your way to a number here as well, as per normal there’s a definite dartboard feel to our smallest movie.
Time to turn it over to you, the adoring public, get in there and cover yourself in prediction glory.
Current Record: 17-44-3 against the wisdom of crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Captain Phillips: $23 million
- Machete Kills: $9.4 million
- Romeo and Juliet: $1.8 million
- Wadjda: N/A
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
