Barring another shock at the top, One Direction: This is Us has this weekend wrapped up like a Christmas present. But really, this is a weekend no one truly wins, it’s a weekend a few movies survive. At my current projections these will be the worst financial results since all the way back in September of 2008, when Bangkok Dangerous took the crown with single digits. One of our new releases won’t even crack the top ten! Remarkable.
But what of Morgan Spurlock‘s One Direction: This is Us? Folks always want to point to Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour as a comp, but $31 million on less than 700 theaters is never happening again. Ever.
SIDENOTE: We’re now officially in the third world of Miley Cyrus, the refutation of all that’s come before.
I have $6,000 per theater on the 1D concert doc. This is indeed a popular boy band, but fanbases are becoming more and more fragmented. They’re loud, but not legion.
Next up, one of the worst films in ages, Getaway. It’s incredible this is even being released, but let’s just say folks are going to avoid this like SARS. I have it just under $5.0 million, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a result under $3.0 million. I’ve seen a commercial for it, and they didn’t even have enough to make it look halfway decent for 30 seconds. Dead film walking.
Your guess is as good as mine as to just how wide Grandmaster is expanding. But that would be great information to know as you predict, because $2.5 million could be way short of how it finishes. Choose your own adventure.
Finally, Closed Circuit, a movie I haven’t seen, but based on the company it is keeping this weekend it can’t be all that impressive. Currently, it’s finishing out of the top ten, never to be heard from again, but perhaps you’ve got a cheeky feeling it’s going to over-perform. To that I’d say, “Vaya con dios”. $2.0 million is the absolute highest I can go, which is going to lead to an awful lot of points being rewarded for those who get in first. But the trailing predictions have a better shot at Grandmaster dollars, so don’t lose hope if you’re reading this in the afternoon.
One final note on tracking: the two major services (MTC and RS) have been all over the board this summer, and they are again this weekend, so please take the figures below with a giant grain of salt.
Current Record: 10-29-1 against the wisdom of crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- One Direction: This is Us: $17.0 million
- Getaway: $5.0 million
- The Grandmaster: $2.5 million
- Closed Circuit: $2.0 million
Speed and research will be your allies before your predictions, I’m your biggest fan, so get in the mix and rack up some points!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
