When it comes to this weekend’s box office predictions, it would seem Elysium is in the driver’s seat, especially after the performance of 2 Guns vs. Smurfs 2 last weekend.
The tracking likes Elysium as well, though do y’all think Matt Damon is worth nearly ten million more at the box office than Tom Cruise (Oblivion opened at $37 million)? An opening just under $46 million would represent the third largest of Damon’s career, trailing only The Bourne Ultimatum and The Bourne Supremacy. If you’re looking for director precedent instead, Neill Blomkamp‘s only prior film, District 9, won a weekend in August of 2009, with a healthy $37 million.
In second place, and the title I believe to be the most volatile of the weekend, Planes. That Smurfs 2 soft opening has me running scared. Are parents finally tiring of summer animation? The trailers have been fairly bland, clearly hoping to cash in on the Cars legacy. Now then, I know this is a Disney film, but it sure looks like a Pixar film, and if it was it would be the lowest Pixar opening in history at my $25.5 million prediction. Keep that in mind, and proceed with caution, there’s about $20 million worth of dartboard space to play with.
But what of We’re the Millers? I don’t like it to do much, even though the advertising has been ubiquitous. But really, can the box office support three R-rated films in the top five? I guess I’ve answered my own question by placing three in the top five, but the point is there are limited adult dollars to go around, and I see the majority headed Elysium‘s direction. So $24.5 million is the prediction for We’re the Millers, and I can only see it slipping from there.
Lastly, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters. The sea of summer sequels is sputtering to an end here in August, and I love the tracking number here, even though it’s well below the original’s weekend total. There’s absolutely no momentum for this title, no clamoring, heck they might have been better off shooting for a February opening a la Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief (which remains the worst movie title ever). As it stands, I look for about two million folks to see it for a $18.2 million opening weekend. I only wish I was allowed to bet against this title with real money. Ah, well.
Now it’s your turn, get those predictions in early and we’ll see how it all shakes out. If you haven’t checked the reader prediction leaderboard lately for some added motivation, give a click right here and get fired up.
Current Record: 7-20-1 against the wisdom of crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Elysium: $42 million
- Planes: $32 million
- We’re the Millers: $23 million
- Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters: $19 million
Your turn, get in there and get on the board!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
