2013 Oscar Prediction Update: Cate Blanchett Moves to Top of Best Actress List

I saw Woody Allen‘s Blue Jasmine earlier this week and while a few have started posting their reviews, I’ve stayed clear of reading any of them until I finish writing my own for fear of their opinions seeping into my subconscious. However, there can’t be a single review out there that isn’t touting Cate Blanchett‘s performance as a formidable Oscar front-runner… because it is.

Blanchett owns the title role as a New York socialite that has lost everything and is forced to move to San Francisco and live with her sister Ginger (Sally Hawkins). Lost and bewildered, Jasmine arrives to find she and Ginger couldn’t be leading their lives any more differently, a fact that plays heavily on the film’s narrative considering it was Jasmine’s husband’s (Alec Baldwin) shady business dealings that landed Jasmine in her current predicament, her sister in financial troubles and her now, ex-husband behind bars.

As a result, I’ve had to shuffle up my Best Actress predictions a bit as Blanchett is currently the only performer on the board I feel confident saying will be nominated. Therefore I have no other choice but to move her up to the #1 position.

As a result, while I was holding strong and steady with Naomi Watts (Diana) at the top, the lack of anything for that film outside of a couple teaser here and there, combined with the fact eOne is handling the distribution is slowly causing my confidence to wither. So she moves down a couple slots, not out, but down. Perhaps the film will premiere at one of the fall festivals and give us reason to give her greater consideration.

Otherwise, here’s how my current top five shapes up:

  1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
  2. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
  3. Naomi Watts (Diana)
  4. Judi Dench (Philomena)
  5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

You can check out the full field of 22 contenders right here.

I will have a full review of Blue Jasmine soon and I will have to update a few other categories after having seen it, but Best Actress was undoubtedly the first one I had to get to.

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