Monsters University is the likely winner for a second straight weekend, and without a compelling limited release we’re just going to consider two newbies and two carryover numbers for this weekend’s box office prediction contest.
First off, Monsters University. You could plug in Brave‘s 49 percent dip, or perhaps you’re feeling something a little closer to Cars 2, and that ugly looking 60 percent drop? There’s over $10 million dollars worth of variance in there, so tread carefully when considering your numbers. As for myself? I like that Brave trend line quite a bit, especially with no family film entering the market to challenge Pixar, so I’m putting up a $43.7 million prediction.
World War Z will face far more unkind waters this weekend, such is the way of summer action, so my 57% drop for a prediction of $28.5 million might end up being kind. Comparables for this one? 2012? Zombieland? It’s a strange film to attempt a number on, mostly because that “B+” CinemaScore doesn’t really mean much either way.
As for the new releases, tracking has them jumbled up into a box office mess. I’m writing this column to appear early on Thursday, to give everyone more time to get their predictions in, so there may be some value in plugging in the actual theaters counts (I went with estimates). There’s not much to financially separate the two films, apart from the targeted audience.
The Heat, which stars Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy, earns every inch of that R rating, making it completely unapproachable for teens. Still, films like Ted and Bridesmaids have proven summer comedy breakouts can happen, and this one is particularly well timed because This is the End couldn’t find opening weekend traction. It seems to me that many a date night will be spent with McCarthy and Bullock, so I’m bringing it in at just over $37 million.
Lastly, we come to Roland Emmerich‘s White House Down. I see this is a classic under-performer, it’s entering an action market that’s already saturated and the trailers look extremely silly. I’m not saying it doesn’t have a chance to compete this weekend, but it looks like more of an international play to this guy so I’m coming in with a soft $30.4 million.
How say you? Predictions away, get in the game and go for box office gold!
Current Record: 1-3 against the wisdom of crowds. Ouch.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
White House Down: $32 million
The Heat: $34.5 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
