Current Streak: 1 Straight Weekend #1 Predicted Correctly
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: I’d put it at an even 20 percent.
Reason: There’s some chance Jack Reacher or This is 40 hit their absolute max potential and The Hobbit slides more than predicted. But again, that’s a lot of variables breaking just right to spring the upset.
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey cleaned up last weekend, though lost in the “best December weekend ever!!” conversation was the fact that it opened lower than the last two Lord of the Rings films (adjusted for inflation).
Is the franchise on the wane? None of the LOTR films had 3D or 48fps, though that’s probably only an eight percent bump. Still, if you are looking for a bright side, you could note that the film currently stands at $250 million worldwide, and the budget for all three was a reported $450 million. Thus, using our standard 2.5 multiplier, The Hobbit only needs to take in something nearing $400 million for profitability, which clearly won’t be an issue. The actual number should end up around $800 million, easing it into the worldwide top five. A tidy bit of work from Peter Jackson and company.
As for my thoughts on The Hobbit‘s chances this week, I’m going with $38.9 million, a 54% drop.
There are also five, count ’em, five new releases to consider. Oddly, they probably all work against each other in terms of knocking off the champ, though most of them are pretty well segmented. The exception? The Guilt Trip and This is 40, both competing for the comedy dollar, though clearly not precisely the same comedy dollar. I’ve got This is 40 coming out on top with $14.6 million, but neither one is very buzz-worthy.
NOTE: You’ll have Wednesday’s numbers for The Guilt Trip to augment your predictions, a slight advantage over The Oracle as I haven’t seen them yet. Use it!
The most intriguing film of the weekend is probably Jack Reacher. It’s a throwback action film that should play well with audiences, but not having the Mission: Impossible marketing oomph makes it tough to predict. Films without a lineage have a tough time in the current market, though I desperately wish that wasn’t the case, as I’m all franchised out. I’ve got Reacher reaching for something around $25 million, and I don’t have any idea how it would make up the 1.5 million tickets sold gap it is facing for the crown. Perhaps you do?
The Monsters, Inc. 3D re-release feels like a potential flop, audiences generally seem over the double dipping attempts. I’ve penciled it in at $4,000 per theater, though I reserve the right to be wrong. The final new release of the weekend is also shrouded in mystery, Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away is only getting 800 theaters, and one can never tell if these “concert” movies are going to play, and what audience they would even play to. It’s hard for me to see anything above $3.2 million, but that’s why we play the games.
I remain in the dark as to the Silver Linings Playbook roll-out schedule, right now it’s playing turtle, but that could change any day now. Prediction for all five new releases will be considered, as will your Hobbit number. Get it on!
SIDE NOTE: Most of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
