Another day, another batch of nominations, another 2013 Oscar predictions update and quite frankly I’m actually having a lot of fun doing it this year… much more fun than in recent years at least.
This morning the Golden Globe nominations were announced (see them here) and while the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) doesn’t necessarily help us determine the Oscar contenders all that accurately, they do help in noticing some trends and they can certainly help raise awareness for Academy members looking to figure out just how they should be ordering their screener stacks for their upcoming holiday vacations.
With this update I have made changes to the Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress and Best Actor categories.
As a reminder, Oscar voting begins on Monday, December 17 and ends on Thursday, January 3. Between then and now there won’t be a single major award or set of nominations announced that haven’t already been released. For those of us predicting the noms, however, the Writers, Art Directors, Producers and Directors Guilds will all be announcing their nominees before the Oscar noms are announced on January 10. For a full look at the upcoming awards schedule click here.
And now, here are today’s updates.
Best Picture
With the Hollywood Foreign Press handing out five nominations for Django Unchained, three for The Master and three for Life of Pi, all three films are beginning to look like stronger Best Picture contenders than we may have assumed previously. Thing is, where do we rank them?
Django was the only one of the three I didn’t previously have among my nominees, but that was when I was predicting only nine nominees, now it’s beginning to look more like ten, though I’m beginning to wonder about the chances for Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild. With the latter of those two films not being recognized by the Golden Globes or Screen Actors Guild will it remain a contender in this race? I’m betting on “yes” at the moment, but without any more major awards to be handed out before Oscar voting ends on January 3, what motivation to Academy members have to watch it?
SIDE NOTE: Did you know the seven nominations for Lincoln at the Golden Globes was the most nominations any Steven Spielberg film has ever received from the org? Same goes for the four it received from the Screen Actors Guild and the 13 it received at the Critics’ Choice Awards.
ANOTHER NOTE: Kris Tapley from HitFix.com passes along a trivia nugget saying, “Only Oscar Best Picture winners not Globe-nominated for Best Director: Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, Chariots of Fire and The Sting.” What does that say for Les Miserables‘ chances?
- Lincoln
- Argo
- Les Miserables
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Life of Pi
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- The Master
- Django Unchained
- Moonrise Kingdom
You can browse my full field of Best Picture contenders and their rankings right here.
Best Actress
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible); those are your four contenders for the final spot in the Best Actress race. Three of them were nominated for a Golden Globe Award (Watts, Weisz and Mirren) and two of them were nominated by the Screen Actors Guild (Watts and Mirren). Which one will take that fifth and final spot?
For a variety of reasons it’s essentially a tie in my head with Riva a smartest choice because it’s the best performance of the four, Mirren’s is probably the most pedestrian of the four but still strong, Weisz is great and she won with the New York Film Critics, but The Deep Blue Sea hasn’t likely been seen by most and Watts is a recognizable name the Academy may want to throw a bone, even if she merely screams throughout The Impossible and lays in a bed semi-conscious the rest of the time.
I’m sticking with Riva for the time being, thanks in large part to the love shown her and the film by the Los Angeles Critics and her Critics’ Choice nomination. The fact Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) wasn’t eligible for a SAG Award and the HFPA is always likely to think “celebrity” first also plays a part in that decision.
- Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
- Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
- Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
- Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
You can browse my full field of Best Actress contenders and their rankings right here.
Best Supporting Actress
As if shot out of a cannon, Nicole Kidman is racking up nominations for her performance in The Paperboy as of late with a Screen Actors Guild nomination one day and a Golden Globe nom the next. Considering that fifth spot has long been a question mark she is the first contender to show strong signs of wanting to occupy it, though Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) is proving just as formidable. The question now is to wonder which film will Academy members watch first?
Will they even watch The Paperboy, which did not get very good reviews and features Kidman urinating on Zac Efron to sterilize a jellyfish sting.
In all likelihood they will all have watched The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which was one of the earliest screeners sent out and not only saw Smith nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, but the ensemble cast as well.
It remains a close race with Ann Dowd (Compliance) and Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) still in strong contention, but at the moment the spotlight belongs to Kidman and Smith.
- Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
- Sally Field (Lincoln)
- Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
- Amy Adams (The Master)
- Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
You can browse my full field of Best Supporting Actress contenders and their rankings right here.
Best Actor
As much as I think the Golden Globe nominations will help The Master get a Best Picture nod, I am beginning to think Joaquin Phoenix will end up be on the outside looking in when it comes to the Best Actor race after his negative comments aimed at the awards race and the fact there still seems to be something of a divide concerning the film overall. What easier way to pay it recognition than to award the film and two of its actors (Hoffman and Adams) while snubbing the man that spit in the face of the Oscars altogether?
- Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
- Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
- Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
- John Hawkes (The Sessions)
- Denzel Washington (Flight)
You can browse my full field of Best Actor contenders and their rankings right here.
Remember, you can stay up-to-date on all of my Oscar predictions by visiting the Oscar predictions home right here and be sure to check out “The Contenders” homepage where I have predictions, award history, the awards calendar, the Oscar Overture, studio For Your Consideration links and more.
