Current Streak: 1 Straight Weekend #1 Predicted Correctly
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: None.
Reason: Skyfall, even if it underperforms, will spank the box office like it’s owed money. We’ll see a nice holdover from Wreck-It Ralph, but not nearly enough to mount a serious challenge. As for Lincoln? It’s getting 11 theaters. This probably will not be enough, even with all the Lincoln fan fiction fanatics in play. Let’s break it down!
Skyfall is a relatively easy film to predict because it has plenty of pedigree. In 2006 Casino Royale earned nearly $12k per theater for a (now) seemingly smallish $40 million. It held on nicely in its sophomore weekend, making this a franchise on the rise. Quantum of Solace was a tipping point, almost achieving the mythical $20k per theater, for a very healthy $67 million opening weekend back in November of 2008.
If you’re looking for some historical context, you could look at 2002 as another mini-Bond resurgence, as Die Another Day opened around $58 million (adjusted for inflation). Oddly enough, Thunderball, Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace all check in around $590 million in worldwide cume, meaning that Skyfall has a legit shot at $600+ million and the overall crown. At this point, given the reviews and crossover demographic appreciation for Daniel Craig, this is the most likely outcome.
I’m predicting a huge opening weekend with the film bringing in somewhere around $78.2 million, followed by lovely legs, especially if Red Dawn turns out to be a nightmare.
There’s not a cavalcade of action further down the board. I’m very big on Wreck-It Ralph‘s staying power, I’m only dipping it 20 percent this weekend.
Flight surprised me, it turns out people love films involving copious amounts of substance abuse, but it should still slide around 40 percent this weekend. As far as that Denzel Washington vs. Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor conversation? I’m still taking DDL. Find someone to give you odds, and then cash in. Tell ’em the Oracle sent ya, but don’t look for me if I’m wrong.
Enough dawdling, how say you? Calls on James Bond will be considered, along with holdover calls on Flight and Wreck-It Ralph – whomever is closest can rest easy, contented in their box office superiority. Predictions away!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
