Current Streak: 0 Straight Weekends #1 Predicted Correctly
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: Slim to none, and slim left town.
Reason: There’s simply no scenario in which Alex Cross takes out Paranormal Activity 4. Not going to happen, streak restored.
Paranormal Activity 4 is going to take the box office for a little spin this weekend. The sequel opened at $40 million, the third one opened at nearly $53 million, so this slightly bullish call is based on tracking.
Maybe the lackluster reviews will hinder the film’s box office traction, or perhaps the tracking is simply too low. We’ll find out together over the weekend, but the film will be a financial winner for Paramount by Saturday giving what must be a low production budget. Quality doesn’t matter a bit when you’re playing this level of small ball, and you could throw out a number from $40 million to $60 million and have a legitimate shot of getting it right. I’m going with $46.9 million.
Which brings us nicely to Alex Cross, a terrible film if ever there was one. Brad’s review hits the site shortly, but this is another example of the quality probably not mattering because they were smart enough to cast Tyler Perry in the lead role. The man has fans! The tracking is slightly below my number ($18.5 million), but I’m confident the under-served African American audience will support this thriller.
As we look at the holdovers, it’s reasonable to figure Sinister will be hurt by Paranormal Activity 4 entering the marketplace. Luckily, the film already stands at a 7x multiplier against a production budget, so it hardly matters what they make from here on out, it’s all gravy. Speaking of, how much did Ethan Hawke get (or not get) for this film? A $3 million production budget with a recognizable star is an impressive feat.
It didn’t happen for me last weekend, but Argo will finally defeat Taken 2 this time around. If I could have paid $20 dollars for that to occur a week earlier, I’d be sorely tempted, because I like the idea that folks out there are making smart choices. Ah, well.
Enough bloviation, how say you? Predictions on Alex Cross and Paranormal Activity 4 will be considered, as well as anything else you’d like to make a call on!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
