Weekend Box-Office: ‘Ice Age 4’ Can’t Top the Original On Its Way to #1
By
Brad Brevet
Well, that does it. The final weekend before The Dark Knight Rises hits theaters is over. Are you happy? The discussion now turns to Batman and Bane as we take a quick look at the films that will be pushed to the side as the conversation will be focused squarely on one film seven days from now. Let’s get to it…
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 5 Weeks In A Row
Well, I must say I’m a little surprised. Ice Age: Continental Drift couldn’t even top the $46.3 million the original Ice Age made its opening weekend 10 years ago when it was an unknown quantity. And this installment had the benefit of 3D ticket prices. It’s also impossible to compare it to the last installment which did open with only $41.6 million, but that was after it had already made $28.7 million by opening on a Wednesday.
So, is this a good result, or is this a sign that 3D ticket prices may be able to help these films make what appears to be big opening weekend dollars while also putting such a big dent in our wallets we are unlikely to go to too many back-to-back. After all, parents already likely took their children to see Brave and/or Madagascar 3, the latter being a big success, opening with over $60 million and already topping $200 million domestically.
When it comes to predictions Laremy was too high, but when it comes to Thursday’s reader predictions, Brian was spot on with a $46.2 million prediction. Nice work.
Weekend: $46 million RottenTomatoes Score:40% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $58.9 million was $12.9m off for a percentage error of 28.04%.
After a $62 million weekend last week, The Amazing Spider-Man enjoyed only one weekend on top, but with only a 44% drop this weekend he’s still hanging in there before Batman and The Dark Knight Rises comes along and shuttles him off to daycare.
I wonder, how much of a hit do you think Spider-Man took out of Ice Age? After all, families do tend to love superhero movies, it’s a safe PG-13 and is taking up several of those 3-D screens.
Weekend: $35 million (-43.5% drop) / Cume: $200.9 million / RottenTomatoes:74% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $26 million, which is $9m off for a 25.71% error.
Look at how strong Ted is. I am normally not this far off when it comes to general audience interest in a comedy, but I clearly am on the opposite end of the spectrum with this one. In its third weekend we have only a 31% drop as the film has now made $159 million on a $50 million budget. Seth MacFarlane has earned some bragging rights.
Weekend: $22.1 million (-31.4% drop) / Cume: $159 million / RottenTomatoes:69% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $19.9 million, which is $2.2m off for a 9.95% error.
With $195 million domestically, Brave has now passed Cars 2 and the original Toy Story. Up next is Ratatouille‘s $206 million.
Weekend: $10.6 million (-45.9% drop) / Cume: $195.5 million / RottenTomatoes:76% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $9.9 million, which is $0.7m off for a 6.6% error.
I have to say, I thought this film would disappear faster than this, but I’m happy to see audiences are still giving Magic Mike a shot even though it isn’t necessarily the film that was advertised. Up to $91.8 million now on a $7 million budget. Wow!
Weekend: $9 million (-42.3% drop) / Cume: $91.8 million / RottenTomatoes:78% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $7.2 million, which is $1.8m off for a 20% error.
Yes, it was only a 45% drop, but if you only make $16 million your opening weekend your drop is likely to be a little smaller. I have a feeling we won’t be hearing more about Stone’s latest for much longer.
Weekend: $8.7 million (-45.6% drop) / Cume: $31.5 million / RottenTomatoes:53% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $8.3 million, which is $0.4m off for a 4.6% error.
This is now Tyler Perry’s third highest grossing Madea film. With a budget of only $20 million I suggest he continue making them as people are willing to continue to pay.
Weekend: $5.6 million (-44.6% drop) / Cume: $55.6 million / RottenTomatoes:22% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.4 million, which is $1.2m off for a 21.43% error.
Here’s that Kate Perry movie, which is really all I have to say about this one.
Weekend: $3.7 million (-47.9% drop) / Cume: $18.5 million / RottenTomatoes:76% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $3.3 million, which is $0.4m off for a 10.81% error.
Beyond this point we have a few success stories to discuss, starting with the nine spot and Wes Anderson’s Moonrise Kingdom, which added 40 theaters and is now playing in a whopping 924. The film brought in $3.6 million this weekend and has now made $32.4 million overall. Still has a ways to go if it wants to challenge Anderson’s biggest hit of all-time, The Royal Tenenbaums, which brought in $52.3 million back in 2001.
Weekend: $3.6 million (-20% drop) / Cume: $32.4 million / RottenTomatoes:94% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $4.5 million, which is $0.9m off for a 25% error.
Only four films have crossed $200 million this year. Brave and The Amazing Spider-Man are two films that will do it, it looks like Ted might do it and it is so crazy to think Men in Black III has made over $610 million worldwide and it won’t do it. The world we live in.
Weekend: $3.5 million (-53% drop) / Cume: $203.7 million / RottenTomatoes:75% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $4 million, which is $0.5m off for a 14.29% error.
Beyond the top ten we still find Woody Allen holding on strong with To Rome With Love pulling in $2.5 million and now up to $8.6 million overall and Beasts of the Southern Wild brought in $775,000 from 81 theaters for a $9,571 per theater average.
And now for the big question, anyone care to place some early predictions on The Dark Knight Rises? The early consensus seems to be it will make somewhere around $160-165 million, breaking the opening weekend record for a 2D film held by its predecessor, The Dark Knight, at $158.4.
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