Box-Office Oracle: ‘Ice Age’ Looks to Leave ‘Spider-Man’ With Only One Weekend at #1

By Laremy Legel

The call at the top is a cinch, and there’s not too much drama down the board still. Still, why do we predict box office? It’s not merely because it beats us down. It’s so when it does we can get back up! Wait, no, that can’t be right. I suppose I’m already anticipating The Dark Knight Rises and its global domination. But we’ll get enough of that next week, for now let’s do our duty and break this week down!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 4 Weeks In A Row

Ice Age: Continental Drift

I’ve seen tracking anywhere from the mid-$50s to low $60s. I think it’s going to do very well, especially given a fellow like Brad liking it a reasonable amount. I’ve penciled in $15,500 per theater.

Don’t look now, but Ice Age: Continental Drift could very easily end up a billion dollar film. Ice Age:

Dawn of the Dinosaurs put up nearly $900m in 2009, all this version will need to do is $250m domestic along with $750m internationally. At this point, given the next real competitor is in August, (Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days) it’s going to get three free weekends. For two of those, it will be excellent counter-programming against The Dark Knight Rises. Everything is coming up roses for Fox, they’re destined to best Pixar for 2012.

Prediction: $58.9 million

2. The Amazing Spider-Man
Yep, that’s a 58 percent dip. Spider-Man 3 fell nearly 62 percent, though in fairness it was coming off a frontloaded weekend. I think the “A-” CinemaScore will get it a few extra million this weekend.
Prediction: $26.0 million
3. Ted
That 41 percent slide last weekend was very sparkly. That feels like a “let’s talk sequel” holdover number to me.
Prediction: $19.9 million
4. Brave
Well, hey, at least it’s going to pass A Bug’s Life and Cars 2 domestically. Scoreboard!
Prediction: $9.9 million
5. Savages
I’m not sure if $45m is too pricey for a suspense-drama film, but I suppose the international results will determine the pass/fail here.
Prediction: $8.3 million
6. Magic Mike
$80m on a $7m budget, one of the few examples where marketing clearly made a definable economic impact.
Prediction: $7.2 million
7. Moonrise Kingdom
This movie was released into four theaters in late May, on the weekend Men in Black III was released. Feels like an eternity ago, eh?
Prediction: $4.5 million
8. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection
For the money Tyler Perry is pulling down, I’d put on whatever outfit you had handy.
Prediction: $4.4 million
9. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
Technically profitable, but still $200m away from looking solid within the franchise’s history.
Prediction: $4 million
10. Katy Perry: Part of Me
To Rome with Love could very easily slip into this spot.
Prediction: $3.3 million

How say you? Throw out an Ice Age: Continental Drift number, while there’s still time!

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Laremy Legel

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