Box-Office Oracle: Who’s On Top? ‘Magic Mike’? ‘Ted’? Or a ‘Brave’ Repeat?

By Laremy Legel

We have a legitimate three-way race for the top spot this weekend! You can go with one of three demographics – young males who love “Family Guy”, the ladies who want them some Magic Mike, and of course the dominant family dollar. Who will win? I’m taking …

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row

Ted

The sales trends, via Fandango, indicate Magic Mike will win rather easily. However, I think that’s more of a commentary on who plans their life the least (young fellas) vs. who loves planning logistics for a “ladies night!” (All women). Yes, that’s stereotypical, but when you’re looking at broad demographic swaths you’ve got to make a few underlying assumptions.

Ted, as a film, really worked for me. Not so much for Brad, as he found himself bored. My take is this is a live-action “Family Guy” – and that’s a litmus test on the entire enterprise. If you hate Seth MacFarlane, in general, you’ll definitely hate this. That much seems clear.

The Other Guys opened at $35m in August of 2010, so this result wouldn’t be completely unprecedented – though you could make the case that was due to Will Ferrell and not Mark Wahlberg. We’ll find out together this weekend.

Prediction: $35.6 million

2. Brave
I award Brave a 55 percent dip. If you’re predicting at home, somewhere between Cars 2 dropping 60 percent and Up dropping 35 percent lies the answer.
Prediction: $29.8 million
3. Magic Mike
The only thing working against Magic Mike is that it’s a more serious film than the marketing and trailers would have you believe. It’s still (mostly) a comedy, but I question the Saturday / Sunday legs given word-of-mouth.
Prediction: $29.3 million
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection
Anyone out there seen this? Where does it rank amongst the Madea franchise?
Prediction: $25.9 million
5. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
$374m worldwide on a production budget of $145m, not too shabby, though it’s still well behind the original’s $533m or the sequel’s $604m.
Prediction: $10.6 million
6. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
Should very easily lose about $100m theatrically. Boom!
Prediction: $7.5 million
7. Moonrise Kingdom
Hey, it’s up to almost 900 theaters this weekend!
Prediction: $5.7 million
8. People Like Us
I didn’t love it, but it’s also only getting 2,055 theaters. Tough to compete at these levels.
Prediction: $5.2 million
9. Marvel’s The Avengers
$1.4b dollars can’t be wrong.
Prediction: $4.2 million
10. Snow White and the Huntsman
It’s done well enough internationally that Universal shouldn’t have to avoid their friends at parties.
Prediction: $4.1 million

How say you? Brave, Magic Mike, and Ted will all vie for the top spot, but we’ll take any predictions you’ve got, pronto!

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Laremy Legel

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