Box-Office Oracle: Predicting ‘The Hunger Games’ for the Fourpeat at #1
By
Laremy Legel
The streak for The Hunger Games is on the line this weekend, three films have a legitimate claim to the throne. Which one will break through? Will my personal streak also go down in flames? Let’s break this thing down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 6 Weeks In A Row
How is it going to pull off this feat? Well, to reach Avatar levels (the last film to win four in a row on its way to a staggering seven) is a symptom of the competition throwing in the towel on this weekend. It’s facing off against a PG comedy, which would usually be a big obstacle … if that comedy also wasn’t around 40 years too late. The next two competitors are an aptly titled cabin in the woods style movie, which I just don’t see having enough juice, and the other is a sci-fi actioner, another solid demo, only it’s getting crushed by critics. This is the weekend Hunger Games wins by default. Mark it down.
Overall, the picture is very rosy as well. $500m worldwide is now a certainty with $600m still in play if the international dollars catch up. Perhaps the reporting is slower? Regardless, the franchise is in great shape, and the director change shouldn’t have much effect on the sequel dollars, though a terrible film would hurt episodes three and four.
The tracking is low, even with a mass marketing effort. It’s a question of interest. Parents will put up with a lot, but Mirror Mirror and The Lorax feel like more reasonable choices. And Farrelly fans will likely be turned off by the PG-rating and the overall theme. Lose-lose.
Weirdly, if forced to take another film to win, I’d choose Cabin in the Woods as it has the most upside potential. The tracking doesn’t support a big number, but horror fans aren’t all that trackable. A cheeky $19m could be in play here, though I’m going safe.
They spent $50m on this? How did they do that?! Wow. I was about to praise the $45m worldwide number because I figured the budget was in the $20m range. Yikes.
The cost to convert this to 3-D was reportedly $18 million, so they’ll make all that back and more. But I’d proceed with caution on other 3-D conversions, Titanic still holds a firm place in our social consciousness and didn’t exactly crush the box office. Plus, people are just now learning the Titanic was a real thing, they’ll have to go see it again with brand new eyes.
