The top 12 earned a mere $67m last weekend, a clear repudiation of the meager offerings available. The happiest occurrence was the per theater crown going to a little film called The Descendants, which went on to BFCA, SAG, and Golden Globe love. Can you feel the momentum building? I certainly can. Let’s break this weekend down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
It should get a sequel bump, now that people are acclimated to the character, though it’s now clear that Downey is channeling Captain Jack Sparrow here. The film itself? Egh. The strengths of the first one, an over-the-top villain and a macabre darkness are nowhere to be found, to its detriment.
I’ve penciled in $19k per theater, the first one opened at $17k per. The 2009 version had a production budget under $100m, and as such the $524m worldwide means they are playing with house money here. There’s not a valid competitor for the crown either, only the most masochistic of parents will be heading out to see Chipwrecked.
I’ve got the top 12 at $165m this weekend, a return to normalcy. Will the economy sneak up and knock the box office down again?
Prediction: $70.64 million
Chipwrecked! with an exclamation point really says it all. I’m predicting sequel fatigue here. The Chipmunk era is winding down.
Prediction: $40.7 million
Only 400 theaters, otherwise the weekend was right there for the taking.
Prediction: $10 million
A 52 percent dip, which is pretty kind. It’s more a function of the overall business levels of the weekend than a commentary on the quality of the film itself.
Prediction: $6.2 million
5. Young Adult
It’s getting up to 1000 theaters this weekend, and it’s very solid counter-programming against the top four films.
Prediction: $6 million
6. Hugo
I can only dip it five percent because it’s now on the awards rocket ship. Hell, it could even throw a plus percentage up there with all the nominations pouring in.
Prediction: $5.95 million
Speaking of, same deal, this weekend the people who are hearing about these films for the first time will be showing up to buy a ticket.
Prediction: $5.33 million
8. The Sitter
The second biggest dipper of the weekend. If they hadn’t spent $25m making this one they’d be in really good shape, though it doesn’t seem like they spent much in advertising.
Prediction: $5.31 million
Should see continued success as Christmas looms. $91m worldwide, nothing to sneeze at.
Prediction: $4.68 million
10. The Muppets
It’s between Muppets and Breaking Dawn for 11th place. Dealer’s choice!
Prediction: $4.089 million
How say you? Sherlock looks to be the clear winner but predictions for Chipwrecked, MI4, and Young Adult will be accepted and considered. Get some!
