2012 Oscar Predictions: Updated Best Actress Predictions

I had to do a lot of shuffling as I previously had Carey Mulligan in both lead and supporting actress categories for Shame, but Fox Searchlight will be pushing her in supporting and I had to move Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet from lead to supporting as well for Carnage. But now things appear to be in the right order and I’ve updated my Oscar predictions for both the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories as this week has clearly signaled major movement in the 2011 Awards Race.

Thankfully, I can finally speak on a little more intelligently on the Best Actress category after seeing Young Adult last night, a film I mentioned in my just published December 2012 Oscar Guide and a film I really liked and Charlize Theron‘s performance is one of the main reasons. Theron embraces a bitch of a character in Mavis Gary, owns it and is supported every step of the way by Diablo Cody‘s script. As for her chances in the Oscar race, it’s an interesting discussion.

Looking around the Internet, it’s clear most prognosticators figure the race to be between Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Viola Davis (The Help). I won’t argue with those people. Streep is a front-runner every year almost and has been for the last 1,000 years or so, but she hasn’t won an Oscar for 28 years despite endless nominations. She was just named Best Actress by the New York Film Critics Circle, which is a good start, but precursor awards amount to solid buzz, but not an indication of a win.

Along with Streep, Davis enjoys the fact that not only does she give a great performance, it’s the only performance among my top three favorites that has been seen and supported by critics and audiences. Davis will also be honored with an Outstanding Performer of the Year award at the Santa Barbara Film Festival in late January, conveniently timed three days after Oscar nominations are announced.

So where does Theron fit in? Well, her performance is one people seem to be embracing from HitFix, “Charlize Theron gives a stellar, bitchy, biting, layered, at times moving performance. [Co-star Patton Oswalt] commented… he thinks this will be, more than Monster, the performance people will think of when they see her from here on out.”

To put it plainly, I’m not counting Charlize out and the race down to only Streep and Davis until everyone has weighed in. The tide could still turn.

Beyond those three, Michelle Williams is now looking like a strong lock for a nomination and I think Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) is tidying up that fifth slot all for herself, especially now that she was nominated at the Independent Spirit Awards over Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs). Unfortunately for Close, her character just doesn’t resonate and on top of that she was outshone by her co-star Janet McTeer, whom you can read about in my updated Supporting Actress predictions right here.

The biggest question mark in this race, and the one that could knock Olsen out of that top five, is Rooney Mara in David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. We’ve seen the pictures and read the brutal R-rated reasoning, but how the film will play and what kind of performance Mara will give remains to be seen… and from what I have been told, seen very soon by most critics.

Other than that, I bumped Felicity Jones (Like Crazy) up a notch after her Breakthrough Actor win at the Gothams and you can check out the full field and all of my comments right here.

I have included my top five Best Actress predictions below and you can click here to read my updated Best Supporting Actress predictions as well as watch The Hollywood Reporter‘s actress roundtable video featuring a 52-minute conversation with Glenn Close, Charlize Theron, Carey Mulligan, Michelle Williams, Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer.