I don’t find this year’s Original Screenplay category nearly as compelling as the Adapted Screenplay as I don’t see it being anything more than a two horse race at this point with Woody Allen‘s Midnight in Paris and Michel Hazanavicius‘ The Artist competing for #1.
As for which script currently has the lead, I’m sticking with Allen, who’s been nominated 14 times as a screenwriter, as I’m currently inclined to believe The Artist will be the sentimental favorite of the awards season, but will ultimately go home with a chest full of second place ribbons. However, it’s still early and there are still plenty of factors to be weighed, but that is a conversation for further down the line…
As far as the rest of my first predictions in this category are concerned, it looks like a toss up once you get passed the top two. The three scripts I have filling out the top five begin with Abi Morgan‘s script for The Iron Lady, a film I will be adding to my Best Picture predictions come my next update and one of two scripts from Morgan among my list of 13 contenders. The second is her script for Shame, which she co-wrote with director Steve McQueen, that one, however, may take some strong critical and Writers Guild support to find its way into the top five, which is why I went the safer route for now.
In fourth I have Sean Durkin‘s script for Martha Marcy May Marlene, a film I am obviously high on and tend to get the feeling it has a fair amount of support out there already. Tonally, I liken it to Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini’s Oscar-nominated script for Winter’s Bone and I hope it can find some late year support.
Finally, and this was just a shot in the dark based on past performance, is Dustin Lance Black‘s J. Edgar script. This is here because I don’t yet know how the Academy will receive Terrence Malick‘s script for The Tree of Life and I’m not sure what kind of screenplay Diablo Cody has written for Young Adult. If Cody’s script shows growth since Juno I think she stands a strong chance at a second nomination.
I’ve already mentioned Shame, but I would also like to mention Dee Rees‘ Pariah before moving on, a film I’ve heard really good things about and one that may surprise us as we inch closer to its December 25 release date. The film builds off Rees’ award winning short from 2007, was quickly snatched up by Focus out of Sundance and played well in Toronto from what I heard. Will it be one of our end of the year surprises? Is Christmas Day a little too late to release it? We’ll know soon enough.
I have listed my top five in order directly below and you can browse my full list of contenders, which includes five screenplays not mentioned here and check out my comments on all 13 contenders on my Oscar predictions page for Best Original Screenplay. Once there you will also be able to download a pair of scripts from my list of contenders. So head on over there for the complete list.
- Midnight in Paris (written by Woody Allen)
- The Artist (written by Michel Hazanavicius)
- The Iron Lady (written by Abi Morgan)
- Martha Marcy May Marlene (written by Sean Durkin)
- J. Edgar (written by Dustin Lance Black)
