Best Picture Predictions: Buzz for Clint Eastwood's 'J. Edgar' Begins, but is It the Right Kind?

UPDATE: I misspoke, as one commenter mentions below, J. Edgar will open the Carmel Art and Film Festival on October 14. It will be interesting to see how many press are in attendance, but my fingers are crossed that these early comments are not a sign of things to come.

A pair of high-profile Oscar prognosticators in Hit Fix’s Kris Tapley and The Wrap’s Steve Pond took to Twitter this morning and hinted at some bad buzz for Clint Eastwood‘s J. Edgar, which won’t screen for an audience until the opening night gala of the AFI Fest on November 3, six days ahead of the film’s November 9 release date.

“If what I heard is true, strike J. Edgar from your Best Picture guesses,” Tapley tweeted this morning. He sarcastically ended the comment with, “I know, big shock.”

Pond followed up shortly after adding, “Hmm, I heard something similar.”

As far as the “big shock” goes, I wish I could say I was surprised, but even though I really liked the first trailer I can’t say I am shocked. Eastwood has had a string of disappointments and while there may be debate as to when that string began, I would say he hasn’t had a film that truly moved me since Million Dollar Baby in 2004 outside of a few brief moments in his last six films.

The last Eastwood-directed feature to be nominated for Best Picture was 2006’s Letters from Iwo Jima, but I would have thought J. Edgar would be a lock for sure. Then again, I’m not using this one little blip as an excuse to give up on it.

A biopic starring Leonardo DiCaprio in the lead role as the controversial FBI director J. Edgar Hoover, directed by Clint Eastwood with a script from Dustin Lance Black (Milk) seems like a no-brainer. But maybe we’re looking at another Invictus, Eastwood’s last biopic that didn’t receive glowing praise, but still managed to score two acting nominations (Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon). Along those lines, I have a terribly hard time believing DiCaprio won’t be nominated and I recently added Armie Hammer to my Supporting Actor predictions and Judi Dench will be added to my Supporting Actress predictions when I update them next.

Of course, DiCaprio’s voice affectation as Hoover was something people immediately keyed in on after the first trailer and even I noticed what looked like a really shoddy makeup job aging DiCaprio to play an elder Hoover. However, I have a hard time judging either nitpick until I see it on the big screen.

One could obviously look at Warner’s decision to not screen the film during the fall festival circuit as a bad sign. After all, Eastwood’s Hereafter played in Toronto last year to middling to negative reviews and never recovered. The decision to screen J. Edgar on opening night of the AFI Fest would appear to be a bit of a make up effort for skipping the festivals, but considering that event takes place so close to the film’s opening date it really is just a higher profile press screening where WB virtually assured themselves some goodwill for the picture considering the venue.

The question now, where do I rank it in my updated Best Picture rankings?

Tapley did tell me the opinion he received was from only one person so it doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot, but I am taking it to mean something considering he felt it meant enough to put the opinion out there publicly. As for Pond, he too assures me it’s nothing definitive, but the opinion he heard is from someone he trusts. As someone trying to predict the Oscars, these are those small items you have to weigh when trying to accurately predict the race.

As for where to rank it, I’m definitely not dropping it entirely, but like in college sports, this serves as a loss and the film must drop, especially in the face of rising competition from The Artist and Moneyball and the recent trailer debut for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Speaking of other potential nominees, the last time I updated the predictions I moved Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy into my top seven. However, a Twitter post from David Poland from Movie City News has already caused me to second guess that decision. Poland writes: “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy continues recent run of high quality, low key Euro thrillers like Red Riding [and] Carlos. Great ensemble. Beautiful.” I know what you’re thinking, But that is great news! Yes, great news for the film as far as being what we as moviegoers want, but as far as helping its Best Picture chances? Nope.

As for the films below my bubble line, there are a few question marks that will be hitting theaters very soon. I’ve seen several Oscar prognosticators including George Clooney’s The Ides of March in their top predictions, which is a curious decision if you ask me. I liked the film, but if it were to get a Best Picture nod I can already tell you a more deserving film will have been left out. We’ll know more about that one when it hits theaters next Friday.

I have Midnight in Paris climbing one notch higher, as that will be a last minute decision for me I’m sure, and both We Bought a Zoo and The Tree of Life have climbed out of the cellar.

That said, there is movement all over my Best Picture board for you to evaluate and it surely won’t be the end of the shuffling on our way toward nomination day on Tuesday, January 24. I have included my current top seven directly below and you can click here for the full list of 19 contenders and where they currently rank.

On a side note, I have added six new images to the J. Edgar gallery if you’re interested, which you can browse right here.