The good news I was only seven percent off on my predictions last weekend. That’s close! The bad news is the top slot eluded me again, with The Lion King 3D stubbornly refusing to follow any sort of historical precedent. Fair enough. This weekend? I’m going with the established champ, newbie releases be damned. Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
The Lion King
Brad and I were trying to figure out the other day how much a 3D conversion costs. $5m? You could hire 50 people at $100k for a year with that amount. Would it take more than that? Then there’s the marketing, of course, but that wouldn’t fall into a production budget. And even if the number is $10m the $65m this re-release has earned at the box office makes it a nifty little earner. Couldn’t Disney do this once a year for the next decade? Or does Lion King translate across generational boundaries in a way that films like Dumbo wouldn’t? That’s the conversation they are having in meetings right now.
Now then, to take a third title it must slip less than 45 percent. Last weekend was a sparkling 27 percent holdover, so there doesn’t seem to be any obvious frontloading. So 33 percent is doable, right? I refuse to be beaten by Lion King 3-D for a third weekend in a row. If Dolphin Tale gets me, so be it. Do your worse, mammal movie.
Prediction: $14.7 million
2. Dolphin Tale
It’s got 1,200 more theaters than Lion King 3-D, which is a heap. On the bad news front the production budget was $37m, and this film has no chance of hitting triple digits domestically.
Prediction: $11.5 million
3. Moneyball
I enjoyed it, but I’ve certainly met my fair share of detractors over the past week. It looks as though Moneyball and 50/50 will be splitting the adult dollar this weekend.
Prediction: $11.31 million
4. 50/50
Another film that’s in my top ten of the year (so far), I was hoping it would lure audiences in. But getting to two million tickets sold looks to be a challenge.
Prediction: $11 million
Anna Faris isn’t a box office draw yet, so this will really struggle to stand out in a crowded demographic field.
Prediction: $10.5 million
6. Dream House
It feels like they’ve attempted to bury it, and they’re in luck, as audiences will help them out with that this weekend.
Prediction: $9.3 million
7. Courageous
For less than 1,500 theater counts, this is an impressive number. We’re looking at the second highest per theater average here. See? You’re impressed.
Prediction: $5.5 million
8. Contagion
On the bottom right of the theatrical poster that picture of Gwyneth Paltrow really freaks me out. Very creepy.
Prediction: $5.49 million
10. Killer Elite
I want Drive to end up in the top ten instead. But the crystal ball won’t read that way no matter how much I shake it.
Prediction: $4.58 million
How say you? Four new releases to try your hand at, predictions away!
