The Help three-peated last weekend, destroying my streak in the process. The last film to win three in a row? Inception, though of course the competition was a bit tougher in July of 2010. Three new challengers to the crown this weekend, can one of them knock off The Help? Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
Contagion
Yep, one of them can. You’ve got to like the chances of Contagion, a star-laden communicable disease disaster film. Clearly the star system isn’t what it once was, and figuring out the exact dollar amount any given actor will bring into theaters can be difficult to parse. What I’m getting at is that having a preponderance of names audiences have heard of has got to help. Damon, Paltrow, Law, Winslet, Fishburne, Cottilard … you get the idea. You know these people, and they’ve all gotten together with sure-handed director Steven Soderbergh to tell you to wash your hands more often. Fair enough.
I see something around $6,500 per theater, for a solid $20m weekend, but the overall win/loss will come from international markets. The budget was $60m, pricey given the lack of CGI needed, so domestically this film won’t have the legs to sniff a profit… theatrically at least.
Prediction: $20.15 million
2. The Help
This film, on the other hand, continues to churn out cash. A 5x multiplier without any international or residuals even coming into play. If only they had a sequel idea!
Prediction: $10.8 million
3. Warrior
I don’t feel any buzz out there for this movie, especially after The Wrestler set up the market and The Fighter crushed it. I do hope I’m light here, as I want Tom Hardy to be offered every possible opportunity.
Prediction: $9.35 million
4. The Debt
I haven’t seen a production budget here, but if they kept it under $25m they are probably fine. What’s it cost to book Helen Mirren these days?
Prediction: $5.95 million
5. Colombiana
This cost $40m to make. That feels like too much given the quality.
Prediction: $5.82 million
Six weeks in a row in the top ten. Planet of the Apes (2001) couldn’t pull that off.
Prediction: $5.06 million
Another movie that will hit a 5x multiplier domestically. Between this and The King’s Speech the Weinstein Company should have enough money to have a few pizza parties.
Prediction: $4.63 million
8. Apollo 18
People really hated this one. I didn’t see it, so I’m in no position to disagree. The only production budget I’ve seen said $5m, which means they made bank regardless.
Prediction: $4 million
Get ready for a very special Christmas-time box set!
Prediction: $3.71 million
10. Shark Night 3D
Needs around $80m worldwide to feel good. It has no chance of hitting that number. So that’s not good.
Prediction: $3.7 million
How say you? Three new releases for your predicting enjoyment, and plenty of range for each of them. Prognosticate away!
