Box-Office Wrap-Up: Feb. 18 – Feb. 20, 2011

Laremy’s streak of predicting the number one film correctly ends at six as I Am Number Four was unable to topple Liam Neeson’s second trip to the old man action thriller. Oh well, you can’t win ’em all.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
My only guess as to why this didn’t perform better is due to the fact it feature primarily unknown lead actors. Sure Dianna Agron has got to have some fans in the “Glee” set, but Alex Pettyfer is unfamiliar to American audiences as is Terese Palmer. Perhaps that will change in the coming years, but at this point it’s a sad reality.

The reported budget on this one is $60 million and if this opening weekend is any indication I’m not counting on that sequel getting greenlit. Oh, and the pressure to perform must have gotten to Pettyfer and Agron as the supposed couple broke up over the weekend. Couple. Yeah. Right.

As far as user predictions go, Nick was the closest with an $18.6 million prediction. Solid.

Result: $19.5 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $26.65 million, which is $7.15m off for a 36.67% error.
And here is the film that could potentially jump into second once three-day actuals are announced and can still topple Unknown for the President’s Day weekend crown. Trends suggest this could hit as high as $26 million by the end of the four-day weekend as it continues to have high weekend returns. Dropping only 23.5%, it’s the best holdover for a second weekend film in the top ten.
Result: $19.4 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $15.83 million, which is $3.57m off for a 18.4% error.
Adam Sandler’s latest film is now at the $60 million mark, which actually isn’t all that great. Looking back over previous Sandler films that have hit over $100 million, most of them were over $70 million by their second weekend. Is it possible this one will fizzle out before the century mark?
Result: $18.2 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $16.69 million, which is $1.51m off for a 8.3% error.
Do we really want to talk about this one? I guess we must just to see how the user predictions turned out. So let’s give Ian a big round of applause for his $16.9 million prediction and move on.
Result: $17 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $18.36 million, which is $1.36m off for a 8% error.
Bieber fever has chilled a bit, dropping 53.9% in its second weekend, but with a budget of only $13 million and social networking being the primary marketing tool I have a feeling Paramount sees that $48 million cume at the moment and smiles, especially with talk of trying to rush a “director’s cut” into theaters ASAP. I imagine this DVD will be on shelves in less than three months.
Result: $13.6 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $14.23 million, which is $0.63m off for a 4.63% error.
The King keeps on keeping on. Word of mouth must be massive on this one as it only dropped 9.2% from last weekend and is now the fifth Best Picture nominee to crack the $100 million mark at the domestic box-office. Are we looking at next weekend’s Best Picture winner? Laremy and I will be tag-teaming the event with our live blog next Sunday so be sure to be here and find out with us.
Result: $6.5 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.67 million, which is $0.83m off for a 12.77% error.
Just entering this result in the database gave me a laugh. I just can’t figure out who is going to see this film at this point. You have to have just given up on the day to look at the listings and say, “Ah, hell with it, let’s just go see The Roommate.”
Result: $4.1 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $3.46 million, which is $0.64m off for a 15.61% error.
This biggest drop of the weekend for last weekend’s holdovers belongs to Kevin Macdonald’s The Eagle at 59%. I guess that just proves putting Channing Tatum in a lead dramatic role that doesn’t feature him as an illiterate street thug is probably not the best idea.
Result: $3.5 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.68 million, which is $1.18m off for a 33.71% error.
On a $25 million budget this one has now earned over $66 million. I guess you make a raunchy comedy and the audience will show up no matter the quality.
Result: $3.1 million

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $3.15 million, which is $0.05m off for a 1.61% error.

Elsewhere, this week saw Black Swan top $100 million as it now sits at $101.5 million and the limited release Cedar Rapids pulled in $909,000 from 102 theaters for a per theater average of $8,912, the highest average on the board.

Now for the conversation topics. Do you think Gnomeo will take the #1 spot for the four-day weekend? Will you be taking Drive Angry or Hall Pass for next weekend’s #1? Comment early. Comment often. And comment again after that.

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