This weekend at the top looks pretty clear. No Strings Attached is a mostly harmless rom-com that should have plenty of crossover appeal. The competition is a) films coming off some Golden Globe buzz, b) The Way Back (600 theaters), and c) an average group of holdovers. So let’s take Portman and The Kutch and break this thing down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row
Dipping it 40 percent, which I think is pretty fair. That’s a number somewhere between the drop of Paul Blart and Book of Eli, films that also opened near Green Hornet‘s $33.5 debut.
Prediction: $20.11 million
3. Black Swan
I’m raising it 35 percent on the theory that I’ll never figure this film out. It goes up when it should die down, it slips when it should be gaining ground. This week, off the Globe win, it should gain a little steam. No, seriously.
Prediction: $11.26 million
Plus ten percent. If you’re looking for Globe push precedent you can find a lot of conflicting case studies. Films like There Will Be Blood and Slumdog Millionaire really thrived. Up in The Air and Blind Side weren’t really able to cash in.
Prediction: $10.1 million
5. True Grit
Won’t get any Globe buzz, and so the 20 percent bleed is just a reflection on the current mathematical trend.
Prediction: $8.82 million
6. The Dilemma
With a 54.7 percent dip, this will be the worst holdover of the weekend. The issues are serious demographic competition and a lack of a compelling product. Those things tend to catch up to you.
Prediction: $8.08 million
7. The Fighter
Christian Bale and Melissa Leo’s victories should help it find a second life, though I realize my 35 percent lift is bullish. What can I say? I’m a homer for this film.
Prediction: $6.28 million
Minus 42 percent while losing theaters equals this number. Moving on …
Prediction: $3.67 million
9. Yogi Bear
Remember the good old days, when we could make fun of Yogi Bear and it felt vital and relevant?
Prediction: $3.27 million
10. TRON: Legacy
We’ll miss you Tron: Legacy. It looks as though your final domestic haul will end up just shy of $170m.
Prediction: $2.84 million
How say you? Do you predict an upset at the top? Are my Globe theories hogwash? I’ll be checking in throughout the weekend from beautiful Park City, Utah. Comment early, comment often, Brad will be back on Sunday to wrap the weekend up.
