It was the fifth busiest weekend of the year for theaters, the top twelve cleared $180m. Still, Eclipse didn’t perform as well as I thought it would, so we’ve got some breaking down to do!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks In A Row
Lesson learned, the franchise isn’t gaining new fans. New Moon was at $164m through five days, Eclipse will end up around $160m if this number holds. That’s got to give Summit pause because if a franchise isn’t growing the next step is for it to fall off a cliff.
Now for the good news: the production budget was $68m, a full $82m less than The Las Airbender‘s production budget. So this is still very easily a profitable product, especially given the international reach.
Question for the group: was the Wednesday opening at all a factor? Or would they have done a higher weekend (but quicker drop-off) with a normal Friday release? To me it looks like the same equation, but I’m open to suggestions. John-PT, Ian, and Ryan Hoffman were all very close here.
Result: $69 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $93.83 million was $24.83m off for a percentage error of 35.99%.
The $150m production budget is clearly bonkers, but this is a movie that should do well internationally. Well enough to get a sequel? At this point, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Result: $40.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $31.69 million, which is $8.91m off for a 21.95% error.
3. Toy Story 3
Passed $400m in worldwide cume this weekend, and it will pass Up on the domestic charts on Sunday evening or Monday afternoon. No Pixar film has ever cleared a billion in worldwide cume. Could this be the chosen one?
Result: $30.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $35.48 million, which is $5.38m off for a 17.87% error.
4. Grown Ups
Only Get Him to the Greek and Shrek Forever After dropped harder, but they dropped due to massive theater count loss. A 54 percent drop from Grown Ups means word has gotten out on the quality of the product.
Result: $18.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $19.44 million, which is $0.94m off for a 5.08% error.
Gained six theaters this weekend. Tom Cruise must have made some calls.
Result: $10.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $10.89 million, which is $0.69m off for a 6.76% error.
The rare film that’s profitable domestically, without factoring in international or DVD.
Result: $8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.46 million, which is $1.54m off for a 19.25% error.
7. The A-Team
They are going to need one hell of a DVD release campaign to undo the damage here. A solid little actioner, but they clearly overestimated the potential audience.
Result: $3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $2.04 million, which is $0.96m off for a 32% error.
Can Russell Brand pull off an Arthur remake? That has all the makings of a litmus test.
Result: $1.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $0.732 million, which is $0.468m off for a 39% error.
Less than 100 hundred thousand people purchased a ticket this weekend. That’s not many.
Result: $0.799 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $0.786 million, which is $0.013m off for a 1.63% error.
10. Cyrus
Welcome to the top ten, Cyrus! Three films made $10k per theater this weekend, this was one of them. I liked Cyrus, a very dark little comedy, I recommend it if you’re bored with the other offerings out there.
Result: $0.77 million
My rank: Not Ranked
How say you? Is Eclipse facing a 70 percent drop? Will Despicable Me rise up as potential dark horse winner? And what do you make of Predators chances? Weigh in on this weekend, next weekend, or any weekend you like — the floor is yours.
