I tell yah, a mere 60 minutes after the Golden Globes I was already getting asked about my Oscar predictions which haven’t been updated since December 28 as I felt updating them the same day as the Broadcast Film Critics Awards and just a couple days before the Golden Globes would be silly because I would be hammered on my picks immediately afterward. Then again, it is a no win scenario when it comes to working on the Internet so you have to learn to roll with the punches. After last night’s festivities, which I have well documented right here and everything that happened prior I think it is safe to say we have a lot to talk about as plenty of movement was seen on Brad’s big board of Oscar Predictions which you will soon be perusing over the next couple of pages.
First, to answer a few questions:
Yes, there was movement at the top of the Best Picture board, but it was reluctant movement. I have slid Slumdog Millionaire into the top spot, but might I say it is by only the slightest of margins. Obviously as things stand right now I think it will be the winner, but it scares me because Benjamin Button is so much more of an Oscar kind of film.
I have also moved Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) into the Best Actor top five. I did this primarily because of the box-office take this weekend which shows audience support. Because reviews of the film have been good for the most part. Because Clint’s performance is the one shining light in that film. And because he has pretty much said it will be his last acting performance. Clint has been nominated twice for his acting (Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby), but he has never won. He moves up on the list from #7 to #4 moving Richard Jenkins and Leonardo DiCaprio out of the top five as he moves in with Brad Pitt. DiCaprio and Jenkins are a couple of wild cards in my opinion. It is hard for me to move DiCaprio and Jenkins out, but these are predictions, not a wish list. The big question I have, is if Eastwood gets nominated does he win? If it is his last acting gig maybe the Academy will feel sentimental? Maybe…
Next we have Supporting Actress and Kate Winslet’s impossible two award show wins (not to mention her win for Revolutionary Road) and until now I didn’t consider her much of a contender, but now it is impossible to deny as she makes the biggest leap moving from #8 to #3, still putting her behind Viola Davis (Doubt) and Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona). Things could improve from now until Oscar noms so this one will be watched closely.
The other categories that saw a lot of movement and one big jump were Original Screenplay (always a hard one for me) and Best Director as I have moved Ron Howard into the top five from the #8 spot, but you will have to click over to see who got bumped out.
Now, if you are one of those folks that puts a lot of stock in the Golden Globe Awards and their effect on the Oscar winners and nominees you need to check out my latest right here.
The Oscar ballots got mailed out today and the 81st Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2009, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater. You can keep up with all my Oscar coverage in my “The Contenders” section right here.
Now… for the predictions… click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and
