Box-Office Oracle: Dec. 25 – Dec. 28, 2008

I gotta take Bedtime Stories because the kids rule this weekend. Since ’03 the Sandman (Adam Sandler) has had six $100m+ films. This one will be no different, even if it’s not meant for you and me.

Estimate: $42.2 million

It might do okay on Thursday and Friday… but eventually word will get out. It always does. You can run all the happy ads you like, it’s not going to keep this sinking ship going.

Estimate: $25.8 million

That running time is going to hurt it. Plus some people (like me) are going to be bored by it. So yeah, it’s the typical Oscar film, long on concept… short on box office power.

Estimate: $20.1 million

I love the new trailers for this. They are doing everything short of calling it Mission Impossible 4. Too late guys, everyone knows how this one ends. Still, it will battle hard for third place.

Estimate: $20.0 million

Remember what I said about the kids dominating? Here ya go on that front. This film caused me to have to enter the rare negative drop (meaning positive gain) on my spreadsheet. I’ve got it making around 30% more this weekend than it did last.

Estimate: $18.4 million

Doesn’t it seem like this title will do well once it’s released to overseas markets? It’s not tough to translate “yes” and it fits what the world thinks of Americans anyway. Jim Carrey has made us into a silly people. And he’s Canadian!

Estimate: $17.3 million

The buzz has sure dried up quick on this title. Did anyone see it ? Want to discuss that last scene? No, the movie wasn’t good… but that last bathtub scene was righteous. I at least have to salute them for that part.

Estimate: $15.6 million

This is the wildcard of the weekend, the title I could easily be $15m off on. Why? They are marketing the living hell out of this one, trying to make it seem like anything besides what it is. Still, I don’t think it’s going to work, because the type of people they are trying to convince are pretty hooked into the internet which has been bashing it for two weeks straight.

Estimate: $14.2 million

It’s up to 1250+ theaters this weekend which should help quite a bit. Really guys, see this or Slumdog Millionaire this weekend if you get a chance. Just because a film has a big budget doesn’t mean you owe it your patronage. Take a chance on a smaller, infinitely better film like this one.

Estimate: $10.2 million

Brad’s breakdown of 20th Century Fox was one of the better things I’ve read all year. Seriously guys, just make better movies. All the other big studios do it occasionally, you can to0. Hire me as a consultant and I’ll work for 1% of profit. That’s just how confident I am in my ability to say things like “Wait, why would we remake this film with Jaden Smith as an annoying stepson?”

Estimate: $7.4 million