#1 movie predicted correctly: Zero in a row
1. Fracture
It’s another small-ball week and I again find myself with three possible winners. Probability suggests I’ll never get it right, or that I’m due to get it right. Fracture is not a great movie, but the ads are everywhere, and it’s got Tony Hopkins. Good enough for me.
Estimate: $14.4 million
2. Disturbia
The winner last week will face a drop due to two new thrillers on the board. The word of mouth seems like it will be decent but it doesn’t have Tony Hopkins. Plus the early adopters have already guzzled it. If it wins again I’m banning it from the rankings.
Estimate: $13.1 million
3. Vacancy
You know who is out of the top ten this weekend? 300 and Wild Hogs. Hogs had SEVEN straight weeks in the top ten, and 300 had six. That’s very impressive stuff. As for Vacancy it looks like a pretty straightforward (and brisk!) thriller. I just don’t think it’s got enough to make up the 400 theaters it’s spotting Disturbia.
Estimate: $11.5 million
I’m saying this will draw half the audience of Step Up. The female half. Plus The O.C. kids. But it’s really received very little marketing dollars to work with. Looks like a “take the money and run” grab for Adam Brody.
Estimate: $10.1 million
Still going strong, still the only decent kid’s fare for days. At $73m and counting, being the best out there is adding up.
Estimate: $9.5 million
I’ve been enjoying Will Ferrell’s little two minute video, maybe you should too. And, yeah, it’s sad that this has almost as many laughs as Blades of Glory.
Estimate: $8.1 million
$32m so far. And you know when the Criterion special four disc set comes out they are going to scoop right up.
Estimate: $5.9 million
No Balki, no peace. This one was crushed last weekend and will be crushed again. Being the fourth best thriller, out of four, gives you sole possession of the poop medal. Vacancy gets bronze, this gets a trip to the sink to clean up.
Estimate: $5.2 million
9. Hot Fuzz
Hiya Hot Fuzz! They have done more press for this than I’ve ever seen, and yet they only managed to secure 825 theaters. What’s up with that? I know they want a slow build but even if they knock this out of the park they probably couldn’t sniff the top five. Here’s hoping they get a big budget one day.
Estimate: $3.3 million
10. Pathfinder
Welcome to the Laremy Lounge. Why wasn’t Nissan a sponsor here? Do you think it was the whole “dead Native American” vibe? Yeah, you’re probably right.
Estimate: $3.1 million
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