Day Two of my Twinkielessness, this Lent-ruled world has me on the brink of madness. The good news is I can take my mind off things by sifting through the nominations for Best Actor and Best Actress and laying out the odds for the candidates. I’m going to borrow The Box Office Oracle’s powers for a little while longer to come up with the best possible predictions for Oscar night. Now some of you out there may think, “Uh, Dre, the Best Actor and Actress race this year is easy.”. Well, you’re wrong. It’s RIDICULOUSLY easy. But here’s how it looks anyway.
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Should he have been nominated? Push came to shove, I’d have nominated him for The Departed but that’s just preference. The guy is a phenomenal actor and he deserved the nod for either film.
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Should he have been nominated? Yes. After finally catching up with the movie a few weeks ago I can say I was wrong, you were right, Academy. Just don’t get used to it.
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Should he have been nominated? I know O’Toole is old. Yes, I have a heart. No, I wouldn’t have nominated him. I loved O’Toole in the movie. He was good, very touching at times and at others, pretty funny but I would have used this slot to nominate Daniel Craig for Casino Royale or better yet, Matt Damon for The Good Shepherd.
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Should he have been nominated? No, because Sacha Baron Cohen needed to get a nomination this year and Smith would have been the sacrificial lamb.
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Should he have been nominated? Whitaker was scary-good in this movie, so without question, he deserved the nomination. I’d still have handed the gold to Borat, but when Whitaker wins this Sunday, I won’t be upset in the least.
Okay, so the male actors weren’t much trouble to sort through in terms of predictions. Will the ladies be any different? Yes. They’ll be even easier.
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Should she have been nominated? Definitely. In fact, if I had a vote, she’d get mine. Yes, I’m sick of seeing Helen Mirren win.
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Should she have been nominated? Didn’t see it so you know my rule … she gets the chop. I’d have snuck in Ellen Page from Hard Candy here instead. She was crazy too.
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Should she have been nominated? Mirren has won every single award – big or small – since the season started. Maybe I’m a little sick her of winning, but that doesn’t mean she isn’t superb in the movie.
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Should she have been nominated? Yes, this is one of my favorite Streep performances…
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Should she have been nominated? Why not. Yeah, I didn’t see Little Children but I cannot deny Kate her nomination. That would destroy my chances with her.
That wraps up the acting categories. The safe bets are: Hudson, Arkin, Whitaker and Mirren. The only one that isn’t a sure, safe bet is Arkin. That’s the kind of year we’ve had. It has, of course, nothing to do with who is deserving, but everything to do with how typical and predictable the Academy has become. The safe thing is to not place any legal bets (except maybe on Arkin where you can at least win a little money). Better yet, find someone that’s really stupid or just naive and bet them Whitaker and Mirren are winning the Oscar. Tell them if either actor loses, you’ll pay up. That gives the dummy you’re betting the supposed edge. Casual film fans will always think Leo has shot. They’ll hear Streep’s name and think, “Well, she always wins”. People make money on other people’s ignorance every day. Why not sell your soul and join the fray?
The good news is the Best Picture race is a lot more wide-open, basically coming down to three movies. I’ll be back tomorrow to discuss which ones. See you then.
Stay up-to-date at all times with everything Oscar at RopeofSilicon’s official Oscars 2007 page.
