Now that the 4th of July has passed and we’ve gotten beyond some of the summer’s biggest disappointments (especially for the guy who predicted that Ted 2, Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL would fare much better than they actually did—what an idiot!), we’re hitting another weekend where schools being out and families needing things to do with their kids should push one of the new movies to do huge business. And then there are two other movies that will be lucky to scrape up the leftover crumbs.
Distributor: Universal Pictures
Director: Pierre Coffin (Despicable Me, Despicable Me 2), Kyle Balda (The Lorax)
Writer: Brian Lynch
Voice Cast: Sandra Bullock, Jon Hamm, Michael Keaton, Steve Coogan, Allison Janney
Genre: Animation, Comedy, Family
What It’s About: Before they found Gru, the Minions’ origin story began at the dawn of time as they looked for an evil boss to serve, but after many failed attempts, the Minions known as Kevin, Stuart and Bob, go on a journey to find the perfect master, ending up at a supervillain convention where they encounter the first female super-villain, Scarlett Overkill (voiced by Sandra Bullock).
Benefits:
This has certainly been an interesting summer so far—especially for Universal Pictures who are sitting pretty with their #1 blockbuster Jurassic World. Things get more interesting when you introduce a sure-fire spin-off to Universal and Illumination Entertainment’s blockbuster animated franchise Despicable Me, which opened on the same weekend in 2010 with a respectable $56 million and grossed $251 million domestic and double that amount globally. In 2013, the sequel Despicable Me 2 opened 4th of July weekend with an incredible $83 million opening weekend after grossing $60 million in its first two days. That went on to gross $368 million domestically, becoming the second-biggest movie of the summer (behind Iron Man 3) and the fourth-highest grossing movie of that year.
While the Minions themselves don’t have enough to say to warrant name actors, they’ve filled this spin-off with a number of big names, including Oscar-winning actress Sandra Bullock, who has been on quite a run lately from The Blind Side to Gravity as well as hit comedies The Heat and The Proposal, maintaining her status as one of the top box office draws in terms of female actors. It has been a year since her last movie and not many will realize she provides a voice since the commercials have been focusing more on the Minions, but she’s joined by Jon Hamm, Michael Keaton, Steve Coogan and Allison Janney, whom all should bring something to the mix.
Let’s talk about marketing. The Minions have proven to be one of the most marketable aspects of the Despicable Me movies because they are cute and their humor is simple enough for even the youngest kids to understand. Even with the original Despicable Me, Universal figured out that they could use the Minions to sell the movie even if it’s just having them appear at the bottom of the screen on the networks owned by NBCUniversal-Comcast. In the ultimate show of synergy, the Minions would make cameos on NBC, Bravo, USA and other networks during their biggest shows.
We can look at DreamWorks Animation’s Shrek “franchise” as a successful one where things continued to build over the course of the movies released with the original Shrek opening with just $42.3 million but grossing $267 million, followed by Shrek 2 which opened with $108 million and grossed $441 million total. The third movie opened even bigger with $121 million but ended up with $322 million, and three years later the fourth movie did the least of all. To some, Minions will be seen as the third installment of the Despicable Me franchise even if Steve Carell’s Gru and his three young chargers are nowhere to be found.
So far, reviews have generally been positive with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes, but maybe that’s because being critical of Minions is kind of like kicking a puppy.
There is no question that Universal is on a roll right now after Furious 7, Pitch Perfect 2 and especially Jurassic World, and while Seth MacFarlane’s Ted 2 was a bit of a stumbling block for the studio, Minions should put them back on track to give Disney a run for their money as the top studio of the year. Minions has already opened in a bunch of international territories with a number of them opening ahead of Despicable Me 2.
Drawbacks:
Spin-off animated movies have generally not fared as well as the original franchises as seen by the lower numbers for DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots and last year’s Penguins of Madagascar compared to the movies they spun-off from. Puss in Boots opened with $34 million on its way to $149 million domestic, significantly less than the lowest “Shrek” movie. Penguins opened this past Thanksgiving with just $25 million on its way to $83 million, making it one of DreamWorks Animation’s lowest-grossing animated movies and a far cry from $180 million grossed by each of the three Madagascar movies. Minions is theoretically in the same boat although it’s been proven that they’re the biggest draw (and license) from the Despicable Me movies.
Pixar Animation’s Inside Out is still playing strong in theaters, going neck and neck with Universal’s own Jurassic World. That might have a bigger drop this weekend but should still do well in the long run, while Minions’ long-term success will be determined by how well it stacks up to the Despicable Me movies.
Prediction:
Minions seems to be the type of sure-thing home run that’s likely to do better than most people expect, but I’m going with an opening over $100 million, probably in the $110 million range, as it dominates the second half of the summer with close to $300 million.
Distributor: New Line Cinema/WB
Writer/Director: Chris Lofing, Travis Cluff (debut)
Cast: Cassidy Gifford, Ryan Shoos, Reese Mishler, Pfeifer Brown
Genre: Horror
What It’s About: Twenty years after Charlie, a young man acting in a small town high school play, dies in an accident (without having seen the movie, I’m going to guess it involves a noose), the students at the same school try to resurrect the stage production in which he was killed to honor the anniversary, and they end up resurrecting his vengeful spirit… now wielding a noose.
Benefits:
The thing about horror films that have made them such a go-to for many studios is that they can be made fairly inexpensively without big name stars so they are almost always profitable even if they don’t make that much money in theaters. That’s the general mission statement behind producer Jason Blum’s Blumhouse Productions who have managed to create a cottage industry for lower budget horror starting with the “Paranormal Activity” movies and extending into movies with bigger name stars like The Purge, Insidious and Sinister, all of which have done well enough to become franchises.
The Gallows is another one of Blumhouse’s original horror movies along the lines of other 2014 releases, Unfriended and The Lazarus Project, and presumably, it was produced in the same $1 million range as others to insure it will be profitable however well or poorly it does.
The marketing has been doing a decent job selling the movie as having a central villain ala Freddie Krueger or Jason from the “Friday the 13th” movies, which could help the movie attract a new breed of younger horror fans looking for their own horror “heroes.” It’s such a simple premise that’s easy to sell and there is a possibility that Warner Bros. has been able to tap into the ridiculously stupid viral “Charlie Charlie” prank that was going around a few weeks back, since that appeals to the same young audience they hope to get with The Gallows. They’ve been showing a lot of clips on social media trying to get young people interested as well. They look like crap to me, but I’m long past the point of being considered “young.”
New Line and Warner Bros. already have proven themselves able to sell horror in the summer when they released The Conjuring two years ago to a $40 million opening, but this is a different animal without the stars or a name director like James Wan.
Presumably the movie didn’t cost a lot to make so there’s a good chance that it will make its production budget back this weekend even if it outright bombs. In the case of these movies, even an opening under $10 million will probably be considered profitable.
Drawbacks:
As is often the case with these movies from Blumhouse, there’s absolutely no known stars which means it has to sell itself solely on the premise and won’t even have talent doing the talk show rounds to help raise awareness. It also means that the acting in the movie is going to be below par, which definitely seems to be the case in the promo clips that have been released so far.
It may not be the smartest move for Warner Bros. to screen this movie for critics because reviews are likely to be pretty bad, especially among the horror sites that are probably getting sick of these stupid high concept movies.
It’s doubtful the movie will have much of an appeal to anyone over 20, even horror fans, because this looks like another dumb movie that’s targeting teenagers who have too much free time on their hands with the advent of summer.
There’s already been too many horror movies this summer, most of which have generally underperformed with the Poltergeist remake grossing $47 million and Insidious Chapter 3 grossing $50.4 million. That isn’t bad since they probably both were relatively low budget, but it’s showing that the once lucrative horror genre is starting to wear out its welcome, which isn’t a good sign for the number of horror-related movies being released in October (although that’s a much better time to score with a horror movie).
Prediction:
Like some of the other recent Blumhouse offerings, this one should probably end up in the $11 to 13 million range for opening weekend, probably getting a bit of a bump from its summer release and school being out, but not being able to get the push it might get from school kids going to see it together on Thursday or Friday night. It will probably tap out around $30 million.
Distributor: Gramercy Pictures
Director: Tarsem Singh (Mirror Mirror, Immortals, The Fall)
Writer: Alex and David Pastor
Cast: Ryan Reynolds, Ben Kingsley, Derek Luke, Victor Garber, Matthew Goode, Natalie Martinez, Michelle Dockery
Genre: Sci-Fi, Thriller
What It’s About: A wealthy New York realtor (Ben Kingsley) is dying of cancer, so he turns to a scientific expert (Matthew Goode) who has created a method of “shedding” your old body by instilling your spirit/soul into a new body that’s harvested to be perfect.
Benefits:
Ryan Reynolds appears in his second movie of the year following the surprise hit drama Woman in Gold opposite Helen Mirren earlier this year. This time, he stars in a movie that mixes Bradley Cooper’s Limitless (which returns as a TV series this fall) with a “Bourne Identity” type action-thriller premise. One would expect that this mix could bring in older moviegoers looking for something different and original that’s not a sequel or a reboot.
The idea of perfecting oneself is something that’s very much in the zeitgeist right now as the amount of celebrities showing off on social media has made the American public more self-conscious about self-improvement. Limitless, released in March 2011, was a perfect example of a movie that tapped into that zeitgeist as it grossed $79 million after opening with $18.9 million, based on a $27 million budget. The fact that Self/less has a similar title probably isn’t a coincidence.
The marketing for the movie is pretty solid because the commercials and trailer for the movie actually makes it look good. (Having seen the movie, I can tell you that it’s not.) Maybe this can be seen as another option for those who have tired of the summer’s sequels and remakes.
With last week’s Terminator Genisys bombing and other movies geared towards older males already having been in theaters for a number of weeks, there’s a chance that guys over 20 will be looking for something new to see and this is one of the few options. Minions and The Gallows will be targeting a very different audience.
Drawbacks:
There’s no polite way of saying that Ryan Reynolds’ career has kind of been in the toilet lately, having just had one hit in the last five years with Safe House, which teamed him with Denzel Washington, which probably helped. In the three years since then, Reynolds voiced two DreamWorks Animation movies, one hit (The Croods) and one bomb (Turbo) and headlined the long-delayed R.I.P.D., one of Universal’s biggest bombs ever with $33 million gross domestic on a budget of $130 million (International didn’t help matters.) We go back even further and we remember how Warner Bros.’ Green Lantern was a huge disappointment for the studio in the summer of 2011 followed by the disappointing R-rated comedy The Change–Up. Granted, Women in Gold did decently but that probably was as much owed to Helen Mirren and so far we really don’t have any proof that Reynolds is a draw for modern mainstream audiences.
The movie also stars Ben Kingsley, but only for the first 15 minutes of the movie, so anyone seeing it for him will be disappointed and it’s hard to imagine anyone will go see it for Matthew Goode or Derek Luke (who also has a smaller role).
Reviews aren’t going to be good—the first few aren’t great–and that’s not going to help a movie that already doesn’t have a ton of awareness or interest, which will be working against it.
Prediction:
I don’t have high hopes for this high-concept thriller, which really doesn’t have much potential beyond its marketing. It probably shouldn’t have opened in the summer and because of that, it’s probably going to end up with a $6 to 7 million opening and less than $20 million total.
Video Interview with Ryan Reynolds (Coming Soon!)
This Weekend Last Year
This Week’s Predictions
While Minions should win the weekend with ease, the real face-off that we’ll be keeping an eye on is whether Jurassic World pulls ahead of Inside Out with that having direct competition from Universal’s animated prequel. The race for fourth between Terminator Genisys and The Gallows should also be interesting, but it’s all going to be secondary to how much Minions makes this weekend.
1. Minions (Universal) – $108.4 million N/A
2. Jurassic World (Universal) – $16.2 million -45%
3. Inside Out (Disney•Pixar) – $16 million -47%
4. Terminator: Genisys (Paramount) – $12.3 million -55%
5. The Gallows (New Line/WB) – $12 million N/A
6. Magic Mike XXL (Warner Bros.) – $7 million -46%
7. Self/less (Gramercy/Focus) – $6.8 million N/A
8. Ted 2 (Universal) – $4.8 million -57%
9. Max (Warner Bros) – $3.3 million -50%
10. Spy (20th Century Fox) – $3.1 million -40%
Next Week:
Marvel Studios returns with its biggest…. or rather, smallest movie yet as Paul Rudd takes on the size-changing mantle of Ant-Man (Marvel/Disney), while comedian Amy Schumer teams with director Judd Apatow for the R-rated romantic comedy Trainwreck (Universal).
This Week’s Must-Sees
Do I Sound Gay? (Sundance Selects)
Writer/Director: David Thorpe
Stars: David Thorpe, Tim Gunn, George Takei, David Sedaris
Genre: Documentary, Comedy
What It’s About: Writer David Thorpe takes an introspective look at the way he talks, not liking the fact that he sounds “gay,” so he starts seeing a speech therapist and vocal coach to try to change that, while also talking to a variety of individuals about their own speech patterns.
As someone who has always had issues with my own voice and the inflection in the way I talk, I was pretty fascinated with Thorpe’s journey to try to have a deeper masculine voice that takes him more seriously as a gay man. But it’s not like Thorpe has issues with his gay identity as much as he thinks that his high effeminate voice makes him less of a draw for a mate (having just broken up with his boyfriend). As irony would have it, he was making the movie just as gay marriage was legalized in New York state, and the theatrical release of the movie (after a great festival run that included Toronto and DOC-NYC) is also coincidentally timed with the approval of gay equality nationwide. But honestly, you don’t have to be gay to appreciate what Thorpe was trying to do, and as much as this is a very personal film, it’s also very entertaining and informative, which really makes it a great doc that can be enjoyed as entertainment rather than one where you feel like you’re being hit over the head to learn something.
It opens at the IFC Center on Friday with Thorpe in attendance as well as premieres on VOD. It then opens in L.A. and other cities on July 17 and more in the weeks to come. You can find a full list of theaters here.
Also opening at the IFC Center Friday is…
10,000 Km (Broad Green)
Director: Carlos Marques-Marcet
Stars: Natalia Tena, David Verdaguer
Genre: Drama
What It’s About: One of the best things I saw at SXSW in 2014 was this drama about a Spanish couple, Alexandra and Sergi, who are separated when she decides to take a Los Angeles residency as a photographer, so they have to rely on Skype to stay in touch, which puts a damper on their relationship.
Other Limited Releases of Note:
Tap World (Vitagraph Films)
Writer/Director: Dean Hargrove
Genre: Documentary
What It’s About: A look at the dance form known as tap as it follows leaders of the community, learning their stories. It opens in New York (to coincide with the Tap City festival) and Washington D.C. on Friday then expands to Los Angeles and Dallas on August 7 and other cities the week after.
Boulevard (Anchor Bay Entertainment)
Writer/Director: Dito Montiel
Stars: Robin Williams, Kathy Baker, Bob Odenkirk, Roberto Aguire
Genre: Drama
What It’s About: Robin Williams’ final performance is in this drama from Dito Montiel (A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints, Son of No One), playing Nolan Mack, a beleaguered husband with a bank job whose life feels empty until he meets a troubled young man (Aguire) who allows him to reassess the loneliness he feels in his marriage. It opens in New York on Friday and then expands elsewhere on July 17.
Tangerine (Magnolia)
Director: Sean Baker
Stars: Kitana Kiki Rodriguez, Mya Taylor, Mickey O’Hagan, James Ransone
Genre: Comedy, Drama
What It’s About: Taking place over one Christmas Even in Los Angeles where a transgender hooker named Sin-Dee (Kitana Kiki Rodriguez) has just been released from jail but when she learns that her pimp boyfriend (James Ransone) has been cheating on her while she was away, she spends the night trying to find him with her best friend Alexandra (Mya Taylor). It opens in New York, L.A. and Toronto on Friday with more theaters to come. You can find out the full release schedule on the Official Site.
Strangerland (Alchemy)
Director: Kim Farrant
Stars: Nicole Kidman, Joseph Fiennes, Hugo Weaving, Lisa Flanagan, Meyne Wyatt, Maddison Brown, Nicholas Hamilton
Genre: Drama
What It’s About: A period drama about parents (Nicole Kidman, Joseph Fiennes) whose teenage children vanish in a dust storm in the desert. It played at Sundance this year, but I didn’t get a chance to see it then, or now.
Meet Me in Montenegro (The Orchard)
Writers/Directors/Stars: Alex Holdridge, Linnea Saasen
Genre: Romance, Comedy, Drama
What It’s About: An American filmmaker and a Norwegian dancer who once were lovers meet and reconnect during a trip to Berlin giving them just 48 hours to try to rekindle their old flame before they have to return to their lives.
This shouldn’t be confused with…
What We Did On Our Holiday (Lionsgate)
Director: Andy Hamilton, Guy Jenkin
Stars: Rosamund Pike, David Tennant, Ben Miller, Amelia Bullmore, Billy Connolly, Annette Crosbie, Celia Imrie, Lewis Davie, Emila Jones, Emilia Jones, Bobby Smalldridge, Harriet Tumbull
Genre: Comedy, Family
What It’s About: Oscar-nominated actress Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) teams David Tennant (“Doctor Who”) and Billy Connolly about a family vacation gone wrong when the children start revealing secrets about their parents. This is another Lionsgate VOD special with limited theatrical.
The Suicide Theory (Freestyle Releasing)
Director: Dru Brown
Stars: Steve Mouzakis, Leon Cain, Joss McWilliam, Matthew Scully
Genre: Thriller
What It’s About: A suicidal man hires a killer to assist him in his suicide although he survives each attempt on his life.
You can post any comments or questions below, or you can get in touch with the Weekend Warrior on Twitter.
Copyright 2015 Edward Douglas
