March kicks off with another mixed bag of movies, although it’s doubtful any of them will be setting any box office records. That’s not to say that March is a bad month and lots of studios have opened movies that might normally get a summer release with Zack Snyder still being the master of the month. (Next year, he’ll be aiming to take down The Hunger Games’ current March opening record Batman v Superman.) There are some stronger offerings as the month goes on, including next week’s Cinderella and The Divergent Series: Insurgent the week after, but we’ll have to get through this weekend first.
Blomkamp is coming off of Elysium, his disappointing 2013 follow-up to District 9, which wasn’t received nearly as well as his earlier film that was nominated for two Oscars. Elysium opened in early August with $29 million before grossing $93 million domestic and another $193 million overseas, which wouldn’t be bad if the movie didn’t cost $115 million compared to District 9’s $30 million.
This time, Blomkamp does have the added benefits of a superstar like Jackman, who can bring in the guys and some women thanks to his role in the Wolverine movies, but he has a fairly small part in the movie compared to Patel and Antwoord, so those going to see the movie for Jackman (who is doing a lot of press for the movie) may be slightly disappointed. He’s also playing a very different character as the antagonist of the piece that masks his normal looks and charm.
Probably the most obvious comparison for Blomkamp’s latest is RoboCop, which just had a remake released by Sony over President’s Day weekend in 2014, when it opened with $21.7 million. Having the likes of Samuel L. Jackson and Michael Keaton and a much better title with namebrand value, it ended up grossing $58.6 million, a good barometer for Chappie, which has the benefits of a better-known director with Blomkamp’s rep from District 9. To some, though, Chappie won’t look that great or will look like something they’ve already seen before and those who didn’t like Elysium may be dubious.
The openings have been all over the map over the past few weeks, so a movie like this could do better than some might expect, although the R rating won’t help and more likely it’s just going to do moderate business somewhere in the $20 to 25 million range. The good thing is that the next two big movies are more geared towards women, so maybe it could have some legs, but it could just as likely end up with less than $70 million and have to do most of its business overseas.
Interview with Director Neill Blomkamp
After a strong string of comedies including The Break-Up (with Jennifer Aniston), Four Christmases (with Reese Witherspoon) and Couples Retreat, Vaughn seems to have hit a wall with bombs like The Watch, The Dilemma, The Internship and the aforementioned Delivery Man, which grossed just $31 million domestically after a weak $8 million opening.
Pairing him with Dave Franco may be a smart move because of his growing popularity thanks to last year’s Neighbors, which grossed $151 million over the summer. Franco’s definitely being featured more in the commercials than Vaughn, maybe because Fox is aware of Vaughn’s diminishing popularity… two of those bombs mentioned above are from Fox. It’s also good to see Oscar-nominated actor Tom Wilkinson doing more comedy especially following the dramas Selma and Belle, but it’s hard to believe his older fans would be interested in this kind of comedy. (Ironically, Wilkinson appeared in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, but is absent in the sequel, also being released this weekend.
Unfinished Business (formerly called Business Trip) seemingly appeared out of thin air with a commercial during the Super Bowl and Fox have been running commercials during lots of comedy shows in hopes that it will get people interested. I personally think it looks funny, but Fox’s hesitance to screen the movie in advance is worrisome and most critics won’t be seeing it until Wednesday night, which is the new way for studios to try to help alleviate bad movies from hurting their movies (not that it’s working). But when no one sees a movie until a couple days before opening, we’re just going to assume it’s awful.
Even if the premise seems promising, especially to those who work in jobs that involve business trips and dealing with corporate, it’s going to have trouble convincing guys to see this over Chappie and it’s probably going to end up somewhere around $15 million or even less for its opening weekend and somewhere in the same $40 million range as Vaughn’s other recent movies.
Yeah it’s pretty obvious this is a movie for a very specific audience that’s greatly underserved, which is probably why the original movie did so well when it opened in limited release in May 2012 before going wide a few weeks later with $6.4 million on its way to gross $46.4 million domestically. By then, it had already opened huge in Europe and grossed another $90 million. Not too bad for a $10 million movie, but that sort of profit inevitably means that the producers and distributor will want to figure out a way to make a sequel. Fortunately, none of the characters died in the original movie, giving them an opening to write a follow-up with the same director, John Madden, who was nominated for an Oscar for 1998’s Shakespeare in Love.
The movie opened in a few territories this past weekend where it scored $9.4 million, more than half of that in the UK alone and a bigger opening than the original, but that doesn’t mean that it will be received the same here. Searchlight is taking a different approach with the domestic release, opening wide right off the bat into 1,400 to 1,500 theaters, but without as much of the buzz created by the original movie’s international release. Reviews are generally good though with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and its older audience is one that would go see a movie based on positive reviews.
The cast hasn’t been able to do nearly as much press over here, which means that awareness is definitely on the lower side and while it should do okay this weekend, it’s probably going to be in the $5 to 6 million range. Fortunately, these kinds of movies tend to stick around thanks to word-of-mouth and it’s likely to gross $20 to 25 million domestically, about half as much as the first movie.
Interview with Director John Madden
This Week’s Updated Predictions –
UPDATE: Lowering my predictions for the top movies because reviews have been atrocious, but giving a little more to The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which could even make a place for fourth place but that’s about it.
1. Chappie (Sony) – $21.3 million N/A (down 3 million)
2. Unfinished Business (20th Century Fox) – $11.5 million N/A (down 1.5 million)
3. Focus (Warner Bros.) – $10 million -47%
4. Kingsman: The Secret Service (20th Century Fox) – $7.4 million -38%
5. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight) – $7.1 million N/A (up 1.3 million and one place)
6. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (Paramount) – $6.8 million -357% (down .2 million and one place)
7. McFarland, USA (Disney) – $5.3 million -32%
8. Fifty Shades of Grey (Universal) – $5.2 million -51%
9. American Sniper (Warner Bros.) – $5.2 million -30%
10 The DUFF (CBS Films) – $4.3 million -37%
Next Week:
It’s the live-action version of the classic fairy tale Cinderella (Disney), taking on Liam Neeson’s face-off against Ed Harris in the action-thriller Run All Night (Warner Bros.).
This Week’s Must-Sees
It starts on Friday with 3 Hearts, the new film from Benoit Jacquot (Farewell, My Queen), starring Charlotte Gainsbourg and Benoit Poelvoorde as two people who meet and fall in love after a night together without names exchanged. They agree to meet again in the future but in that time, he falls for her sister, played by Chiari Mastroianni, unaware of their relation. The series closes on March 15 with Reality, the new film from Quentin Dupieux (Rubber), which will have a live musical performance by LoW Entertainment afterwards. The latter is a weird comedy about a first-time filmmaker whose financing depends on whether he can find an award-winning groan for the victims of his movie about televisions gone wild.
In between, there’s a variety of movies including Breathe, the second feature directed by Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds), a coming-of-age story of two teen girls. Cedric Jimenez’s The Connection (to be released by Drafthouse Films) is a look at the war on drugs in Marseilles during the ‘70s that was previously covered in The French Connection. Frédéric Tellier’s SK1 is a thriller about the search for a serial killer, while the latest from Cédric Khan is Wild Life, starring Mathieu Kassovitz as a father who after being separated from his wife, kidnaps his two young sons and raises them to live off the land. André Téchiné returns to “Rendezvous” with the psychological drama In the Name of My Daughter starring “Rendezvous” regulars Guillaume Canet and Catherine Deneuve. Thomas Cailley’s romantic comedy Love at First Fight, which was nominated for nine Cesar Awards and won three, takes a look at a romance between two very different people, while Jean-Paul CIveyrac’s My Friend Victoria about an 8-year-old black orphan taken into the house of a white family.
Rendezvous with French Cinema runs from March 6 to March 15 with many of the actors and filmmakers coming to New York to talk about their movies.
An Honest Liar (Abramorama)
Directors: Justin Weinstein, Tyler Measom
Stars: The Amazing Randi, Jose Alvarez, Alice Cooper, Penn Jilette
Of Note: A documentary about the life and career of The “Amazing Randi,” magician and escape artist who has spent his life debunking psychics, faith healers and con artists who take advantage of believers, only to be deceived himself when he learns that his partner of 25 years is not who he claims. This amazing film which premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival last year is more than the typical autobiographical documentary due to the bizarre twist that tormented the aging magician in his later years.
Road Hard (Filmbuff)
Writer/Directors: Kevin Hench & Adam Carrolla
Stars: Adam Carolla, Jay Mohr, David Alan Grier, David Koechner, Larry Miller, Howie Mandel, Philip Rosenthal, Diane Farr
Of Note: Co-written, co-directed and starring Adam Carolla from “The Man Show” who plays Bruce Madsen, a comedian touring the country doing stand-up after his television and movie career have dried up, though he is desperately trying to get off the road. Much of this is based on Carolla’s own life and career, as his character used to be on “The Bro Show” with another comedian who went on to host a late night show (in this case played by Jay Mohr), and while it has his normal snarky humor, there’s a nice third act that offers his “character” repentance that makes the film worth seeing.
Merchants of Doubt (Sony Pictures Classics)
Director: Robert Kenner
Of Note: The Oscar-nominated director of Food, Inc. adapts Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway’s book about “pundits-for-hire,” scientific experts who are paid to help the case for everything from smoking cigarettes to pharmaceuticals to climate change, helping to convince people not to believe valid scientific studies proving the dangers involved.
Deli Man: The Movie (Cohen Media Group)
Director: Erik Greenberg Anjou
Stars: Ziggy Gruber, Jerry Stiller, Alan Dershowitz, Freddie Klein, Dennis Howard, Jay Parker, Fyvush Finkel, Larry King.
Of Note: With apologies to Robert Kenner’s earlier doc, you’ll want to make sure you’ve eaten a big meal before seeing this doc about the New York tradition of Jewish delicatessens where heaps of pastrami and corned beef and other meat are piled high on rye bread with mustard. Following Ziggy Gruber, a third-generation delicatessen man, it goes over the history of the long-standing tradition and how it’s changed in recent years.
Other Limited Releases of Note:
The Lesson (Film Movement)
Writer/Directors: Kristina Grozeva, Petar Valchanov
Stars: Ivan Barnev, Margita Gosheva, Ivan Savov, Stefan Denolyubov
Of Note: This Bulgarian drama that premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival involves a school teacher who gets into trouble after scolding a student for a theft, while having domestic issues with her father and drunken husband. It opens on Wednesday at the Film Forum in New York City.
X/Y (eOne Films)
Writer/Director: Ryan Piers Williams
Stars: America Ferrera, Amber Tamblyn, Common, Melonie Diaz, Maria Dizzia, Ryan Piers Williams
Of Note: The second film from Ryan Piers Williams (The Dead Land) is a film about a group of friends dealing with their trying to maintain emotional relationships while dealing with the New York dating scene.
Kidnapping Mr. Heineken (Alchemy)
Director: Daniel Alfredson
Stars: Anthony Hopkins, Ryan Kwanten, Sam Worthington, Jim Sturgess, Jemima West, Mark van Eeuwen, Tom Cocquerel
Of Note: From Swedish filmmaker Daniel Alfredson, director of The Girl Who Played with Fire and The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest, this crime-thriller looks at 1983 kidnapping of the head of the Heineken beer empire (played by Anthony Hopkins), taken by gunpoint in broad daylight from the streets of Amsterdam, leading to the highest paid ransom ever for an individual.
These Final Hours (Amplify, Well GO USA)
Director: Zak Hilditch
Stars: Nathan Phillips, Lynette Curran, Daniel Henshall, Sarah Snook, Angourie Rice, Jessica de Gouw, Kathryn Beck
Of Note: This apocalyptic films stars Nathan Phillips (The Bridge) as a young man who wants to throw the world’s biggest parties before the end of the world joined by Rose (Angourie Rice) whom he saves as he tries to get to his destination.
Two Men In Town (Cohen Media Group)
Director: Rachid Bouchareb
Stars: Forest Whitaker, Brenda Blethyn, Ellen Burstyn, Luis Guzman, Harvey Keitel, Dolores Heredia,
Of Note: From the director of Days of Glory comes this drama starring Forest Whitaker as a man who became a Muslim during his 18-year stay in prison, who tries to rebuild his life once realized with the help of his parole officer (Brenda Blethyn), only to run into problems with the local Sheriff, played by Harvey Keitel.
Bad Asses on the Bayou (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Writer/Director: Craig Moss
Stars: Danny Glover, Danny Trejo, Sammi Rotibi, John Amos, Loni Love, Davi Jay
Of Note: Apparently, this is the third installment of an action-comedy franchise I never heard of that reunites characters played by Danny Trejo and Danny Glover, as they travel down to Louisiana. Can’t wait for the next installment, Bad Asses at the Berlin Wall.
Buzzard (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
Writer/Director: Joel Potrykus
Stars: Joshua Burge
Of Note: A dark comedy about a horror-obsessed slacker whose illegal activities start to catch up to him.
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Copyright 2014 Edward Douglas
