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Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for
December 22, 2006
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior,
your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday
for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on
Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.
This is the last Weekend Warrior of the year, so I hope all of my regular and sporadic readers have a Happy Holidays and we'll be talking again in '07. In the next few weeks, you can look for my Top 20 and Terrible 25 lists for the year, as well as other fun stuff to pass the time until the first Weekend Warrior of '07.
(If
you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback
and Email is always welcome,
and almost always responded to.)
The weekend right before Christmas can be dicey, because let's face it, people are shopping and traveling and the last thing on their mind is going to the movies. Still, studios are constantly releasing movies on the weekend in hopes they'll do decent business over the following week where almost everyone is out of school or off work.
The movie expected to do the most business both this weekend and overall is the family action-adventure Night at the Museum teaming the star of 2004's biggest Christmas hit, Ben Stiller, with Shawn Levy, director of 2003's biggest Christmas hit Cheaper by the Dozen. Museum is Stiller's first big budget live action family comedy, and it'll have a lot of drawing power both to kids and the teen audience that likes Stiller's distinctive humor without having to worry about any other comedies in the market. As well or poorly as it does this weekend, expect it to pick up steam next Tuesday to end the year as one of its major powerhouses.
It may have to contend with the sixth chapter of the ongoing boxing saga of Rocky Balboa, as Sylvester Stallone returns after fifteen years to write, direct and star in the long-awaited movie that will open early on Wednesday and should drum up enough word-of-mouth to carry that business through the holidays. (Update: The movie made $6.4 million its opening Wednesday, which is pointing to a strong weekend in the $18 to 20 million range.)
Last week's Top 3 is likely to start slipping a bit with Will Smith's Pursuit of Happyness holding up well enough to fight Rocky for second place, while two other movies geared towards the guys will make a more gradual entrance into the marketplaces as Warner Bros.' football drama We Are Marshall, starring Matthew McConaughey and Matthew "Dr. Jack" Fox, takes on Robert De Niro's CIA thriller The Good Shepherd, starring Matt Damon. (By Sunday, we should know if this is a good weekend to be named Matt.)
Like with Steven Spielberg's Munich last year, Universal is going the unconventional route by releasing a slower-paced spy drama, knowing that its target audience of older males may be just as interested in the two sports movies, but Shepherd should narrowly defeat Marshall, as the latter takes up the slack in the coming week.
Really, this can be a tough weekend to predict because it's so close to Christmas, and as mentioned, some people will be traveling or doing last minute shopping. The last time Christmas landed on Monday, Mr. Tom Hanks killed the weekend with his holiday movie Cast Away, which made nearly $29 million, but the rest of the Top 5, including Nancy Meyers' romantic comedy What Women Want. Nicholas Cage's The Family Man and Sandra Bullock's Miss Congeniality, made another $50 million between them. Obviously, movies can make money on this weekend, though all but the family films could be slanted towards Friday.
Last year saw the release of no less than six new movies and a couple more expanding into wide release, though they opened slowly across the course of the week, including a few that only opened wide on Sunday. Jim Carrey's Fun with Dick and Jane and Steve Martin's Cheaper by the Dozen 2 got an early start by opening on Wednesday, but neither made more than $15 million. Instead, King Kong and Chronicles of Narnia took the top 2 spots once again with roughly $20 million each. Johnny Knoxville's The Ringer and Steven Spielberg's Munich opened on Friday to make $5 and 4 million while Jennifer Aniston's Rumor Has It... and the Aussie horror film Wolf Creek each opened on Christmas Sunday. Further options included Memoirs of a Geisha, which expanded wide to bring in $6.7 million, and The Producers went wide on Sunday. The Top 10 brought in roughly $95 million, though you have to account for the fact that a few of the movies only had one day's gross. Expect this weekend to do significantly better.
THE CHOSEN FEW (Best of the Rest of 2006):
Since this is the last column of the year and there are a lot of great movies being given limited release before opening wide in '07, we're going to do something a little different and feature six movies that are worth looking for if you're in a big city for the holidays.
LETTERS
FROM IWO JIMA (Warner Bros.) Opening December 20 (NY, LA.
SF)
Starring Ken Watanabe, Kazunari Ninomiya, Tsuyoshi Ihara, Ryo Kase, Shido Nakamura, Yuki Matsuzaki, Hiroshi Watanabe, Takumi Bando, Nobumasa Sakagami, Takashi Yamaguchi, Nae Yuuki
Directed by Clint Eastwood (Flags of Our Fathers, Million Dollar Baby, Mystic River and dozens more); Written by Iris Yamashita (debut)
Genre: Drama, War
Rated R
Tagline: "From the director of 'Flags of Our Fathers' comes the completion of the Iwo Jima saga." (Does anyone else think it's weird to promote the movie by mentioning the one that for all intents and purposes, was a bomb that lost money?)
Plot Summary: On the island of Iwo Jima, the Japanese soldiers prepare for the impending invasion by U.S. forces, while a young solder named Saigo (Kazunari Ninomiya) wonders what they're doing there when there's no chance of them fending off the forces
Of Note: Clint Eastwood's sister piece acts as a prequel to Flags of Our Fathers, showing the Japanese side of the battle on Iwo Jima.
Comparisons: Flags of Our Fathers, The Thin Red Line, We Were Soldiers, Pearl Harbor
REVIEW
INTERVIEW (with writer Iris Yamashita)
THE PAINTED VEIL (Warner Independent) Opening December 20 (NY, LA)
Starring Naomi Watts, Edward Norton, Liev Schreiber, Toby Jones
Directed by John Curran (We Don't Live Here Anymore); Written by Ron Nyswaner (Philadelphia)
Genre: Drama, Period
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Sometimes the greater journey is the distance between two people."
Plot Summary: After getting married prematurely, a young couple (Edward Norton, Naomi Watts) move to Shanghai, where she immediately gets into an affair with another man (Liev Schreiber). When her husband finds out, he vengefully accepts a job to research a break of cholera in a small Chinese village, knowing full well that the journey may kill them.
Of Note: W. Somerset Maugham's 1920's romance novel, which was already turned into a 1934 film starring Greta Garbo, is revived thanks to the efforts of Edward Norton and Naomi Watts, who came on board to produce the film as written by Ron Nyswaner of Philadelphia.
Comparisons: The White Countess, The Piano, The English Patient, The Good German, Pride & Prejudice, Shanghai Triad
Mini-Review: This really is a beautiful story, a rich character study that showcases another fine performance from Watts and shows why she's such a sought-after actress. Edward Norton has the bigger challenge, having to work hard to get over the fact that his character is mostly unlikable, but the way the two actors play off each other as a dysfunctional married couple makes it clear why they both were so keen on getting this film made. Toby Jones of "Infamous" gives another great performance, and there are some nice surprises in the form of Infernal Affairs' Anthony Wong in an English-speaking role as an army captain and Diane "Emma Peel" Riggs as a Mother Superior at a local orphanage. Curran does a commendable job capturing the look and feel of China of the period, while Alexandre Deplat provides another gorgeous score, really making it the type of film that will appeal to those with older film sensibilities. Then again, those who don't normally go for this kind of thing might also be surprised by the brisk pace and interesting plot developments, which make it such a memorable film experience. Rating: 8/10
CURSE
OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER (Sony Classics) Opening December 21(NY),
December 22 (select cities)
Starring Chow Yun-Fat, Gong Li
Directed by Zhang Yimou (Hero, House of Flying Daggers, Shanghai Triad, Red Sorghum, Raise the Red Lantern and many more); Written by Wu Nan, Bian Zhihong
Genre: Action, Adventure, Drama, Fantasy, Romance, Period
Rated R
Tagline: "Unspeakable secrets are hidden within the Forbidden City." (I prefer my alternative: "And you thought YOUR family was bad!")
Plot Summary: In the 10th Century, during the Tang Dynasty, China's Emperor (Chow Yun Fat) returns home to celebrate the Chong Yang Festival with his family, but his wife (Gong Li) has discovered that her husband has been putting poison in her medicine, causing a family rift that will ultimately turn into a war.
Of Note: After ten years, director Zhang Yimou reunites with his original ingénue Gong Li for the third movie in his historic martial arts trilogy, this one transplanting a famous Chinese stage play into the time of the Tang Dynasty. It's also Zhang's first time working with Hong Kong legend Chow Yun-Fat.
Comparisons: Hero, The House of Flying Daggers, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, The Promise, War of the Roses, Red The Raise Lantern, etc.
(Oddly, Zhang Yimou's production of Tan Dun's opera "The First Emperor" will be premiering at the Metropolitan Opera in New York on the same night his movie opens.)
REVIEW
INTERVIEW (with Gong Li)
CHILDREN
OF MEN (Universal) - Opening December 25
Starring Clive Owen, Julianne Moore, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Charlie Hunnam, Michael Caine
Directed by Alfonso Cuarón (Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Y Tu Mama Tambien, The Little Princess, Great Expectations); Written by Alfonso Cuarón, Timothy J. Sexton (teleplays for "Walkout", "Live from Baghdad", "Boycott")
Genre: Sci-Fi, Action, Drama, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "No children. No future. No hope."
Plot Summary: In the year 2027, the world hasn't seen a new child born in 18 years, a mystery that has created incredible strife and stress on the world's population. Theo (Clive Owen) is a government official, who finds himself on the run when his ex-wife Jules (Julianne Moore) contacts him and he learns that she's a leader in the underground faction known as The Human Project, who are fighting against the government's inability to solve the problem.
Of Note: Director Alfonso Cuarón takes on the future of the world in this hypothetical premise based on the novel by P.D. James about a world with no children and what happens when various factions discover the existence of a pregnant woman.
Comparisons: The films of Stanley Kubrick, particularly Clockwork Orange and 2001, 12 Monkeys, 1984, Brazil
REVIEW
INTERVIEW (with Alfonso Cuarón)
NOTES ON A SCANDAL (Warner Bros.) Opening December 27
Starring Judi Dench, Cate Blanchett, Bill Nighy, Andrew Simpson, Phil Davis, Michael Maloney, Juno Temple, Max Lewis
Directed by Richard Eyre (Stage Beauty); Written by Patrick Marber (Closer, Asylum)
Genre: Drama, War
Rated R
Tagline: "One woman's mistake is another's opportunity…"
Plot Summary: Barbara Covett (Judi Dench) becomes interested in the school's pretty new art teacher Sheba Hart (Cate Blanchett) and tries to be friends with her, but when she discovers that Sheba has been having an affair with her 15-year-old student, Barbara suddenly realizes that she can use that to her advantage.
Of Note: A character and dialogue driven British thriller starring two of the most respected British actors (Dench and Nighy) and one of the most respected younger actresses, Cate Blanchett. Dench and Blanchett have already received Golden Globe nominations as has the film's screenwriter Patrick Marber, and it's likely that all of them will be dressing up for Oscar night.
Comparisons: Fatal Attraction, Basic Instinct, Closer, Asylum, Birth
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)
INTERVIEW (with Patrick Marber)
PAN'S
LABYRINTH (Picturehouse) Opening December 29
Starring Ivana Baquero, Doug Jones, Sergi López, Ariadna Gil, Maribel Verdú, Álex Angulo, Roger Casamajor, Sebastián Haro, Mina Lira, Federico Luppi, Ivan Massagué, Chema Ruiz, Manolo Solo, Milo Taboada
Written and directed by Guillermo del Toro (Hellboy, Blade II, The Devil's Backbone, Mimic, Cronos)
Genre: Drama, Fantasy, Thriller, Period
Rated R
Tagline: "Innocence Has A Power Evil Cannot Imagine."
Plot Summary: Set in Spain 1944, as the Spanish Civil War is winding down, a young girl named Ofelia (Ivan Baquero) arrives with her pregnant mother (Ariadna Gil) at the expansive villa of a military captain (Sergí Lopez), who is trying to stave off attacks by rebel forces. Upon arriving, Ofelia discovers a hedge mage where she encounters a Faun (Doug Jones) who assigns her three tasks that if she accomplishes, she can accept her rightful place as princess of the Underworld.
Of Note: Hellboy director Guillermo del Toro makes his second genre film set in Spain at the time of the Spanish Civil War.
Comparisons: The Devil's Backbone, Brazil, The Adventures of Baron Munchausen
REVIEW
INTERVIEW (with director Guillermo Del Toro)
ROCKY
BALBOA (MGM)
Starring Sylvester Stallone, Burt Young, Milo Ventimiglia, Tony Burton, James Francis Kelly III, Antonio Tarver, Geraldine Hughes
Written and directed by Sylvester Stallone (writer of Rocky, writer and director of Rocky II, Rocky III, and Rocky IV: The Quest for Peace)
Genre: Boxing, Drama
Rated PG
Tagline: "It ain't over 'til it's over."
Plot Summary: After the death of his wife Adrian, Rocky Balboa (Sylvester Stallone) thinks about returning to boxing after a computer simulation match with the current heavyweight champion Mason "The Line" Dixon (Antonio Tarver) shows him coming out the victor. Cue the fanfare, it's GO TIME!
Of Note: After almost sixteen years, Sylvester Stallone returns to the character and franchise that made him famous with a poignant return to the Rocky franchise.
Mini-Review: It tends to shock people when they discover that I've never seen a Rocky film, no not one. Yet knowing Sylvester Stallone's history and that of the character, you can't help but admire his drive to get this film made. Surprisingly, he pulls off a convincing performance and makes an entertaining film that's as much or more about the current times as it is about where Sly must be in his career right now. Yes, in a year of amazing comebacks, Sly delivers a moving performance as the aged boxer, and when he gets into the ring with the heavyweight champion (boxer Antonio Tarver), you can't help but cheer at the classy way the fight is depicted--telecast live in a real HBO moment that adds even more credibility--and completely forget that you're watching a 60-year-old actor/boxer. Adding to that are great supporting roles from the returning Burt Young and newcomer Geraldine Hughes as a fill-in for Adrian, and you end up with a great boxing film that is easy to forgive when it gets a bit corny. Rating: 8/10
Pros: There are comebacks and there are comebacks, and there's nothing more exciting than when a hopeful comeback achieves fruition with a film worthy of that comeback. The case of Sylvester Stallone is an interesting one, because he's been almost completely out of the limelight in recent years. Who knows what happened to Sly in the last few years, as the popularity and acclaim he developed early in his career were chewed up and spit out by a number of horrendously bad movies.
But it wasn't always like that. 30 years ago, Stallone was this 30-year-old up 'n' coming actor, already a bit too old to be breaking in, who started hocking his script around Hollywood for a movie set in Philadelphia about a slow-witted boxer named Rocky Balboa. Not only was the film a critical and commercial success, but it was nominated for ten Oscars, winning three, though ironically none for Sly. (It would be his first and last chance to get the honor of a nomination.)
Stallone went on to write and direct the next three Rocky movies, as well as develop another one of his own characters, a vengeful soldier known as Rambo. (He'll be making another Rambo movie sometime in the next year, too!) The five Rocky movies that were released in the 15 years between 1975 and 1990 earned a combined gross of nearly $500 million, which is fairly impressive, though the last of the movies, Rocky V, was a huge bomb, maybe because the character outstayed his welcome. Or so it would seem, except that Stallone is now twice as old as when he starred in the first Rocky movie, and he's back reviving the character with many beloved old faces and a few new ones to make the film more modern. This sixth movie seems to have come from out of nowhere, so it's hard not to be skeptical that it's not being done solely to cash in and revive Stallone's career, and yet, the critics seem to be loving it, which will be enough old Rocky fans to give it a chance.
With a production budget of $24 million, Rocky Balboa not only offers a potential comeback for Sylvester Stallone, but it's also a chance for the newly revived MGM to actually turn a profit on one of their movies after releasing a number of bombs in the last few months. This will certainly be the widest release for the "new MGM" since their return, and opening on Wednesday should help it build enough positive word-of-mouth to hold up its business through the weekend and over the holidays.
The film's PG rating will mean that fathers will be able to bring their sons to introduce them to the character they loved as a kid/teen, though they're just as likely to bring the kids to the much higher profile Night at the Museum.
Cons: It's been over 16 years since the last Rocky movie and Sylvester Stallone has spent most of that time turning himself and his career into a bit of a joke, mainly by working with the likes of Renny Harlin and doing straight-to-video movies. Can returning to his most famous character be enough to get people to forget all the bad movies he's made in the last 20 years and get some of them to return to the fold? Certainly, a lot of older males will already be skeptical about this, enough to wait until it comes out on DVD or cable, which might keep this from doing hugely well.
One has to figure that anyone under 20 probably won't even know who Rocky is, so it will be relying heavily on older males wanting to introduce their kids to the character. Women probably won't have very much interest in the movie either, something that's so important for a movie to do well these days.
Comparisons:
Why I Should See It: Sylvester Stallone returns to his most popular character, who is possibly one of the great film characters of all time, and surprisingly, he delivers, both in the ring and out!
Why Not: Other directors have made far better boxing movies since the last Rocky movie, so one has to wonder if Rocky can stand the test of time after 16 years.
Projections: $8 to 9 million on Weds/Thurs, $17 to 19 million weekend, and $70 to 75 million total. (Update: Rocky Balboa made roughly $6.4 million on Wednesday, so it will probably be closer to $10-11 million before the weekend.)
THE GOOD SHEPHERD (Universal)
Starring Matt Damon, Angelina Jolie, William Hurt, John Turturro, Robert De Niro, Alec Baldwin, Billy Crudup, Michael Gambon, Gabriel Macht, Tammy Blanchard, Vladimir Mashkov, Joe Pesci
Directed by Robert De Niro (A Bronx Tale, The Score); Written by Eric Roth (Forrest Gump, Munich, The Postman, The Horse Whisperer, The Insider, Ali)
Genre: Drama, Espionage, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "The true story of the birth of the CIA through the eyes of a man who never existed."
Plot Summary: The story of how Edward Wilson (Matt Damon) went from Yale letterman to joining secret societies, working for England's OSS and being around for the formation of the Central Intelligence Agency.
Of Note: Robert De Niro and Eric Roth, writer of Munich, delves into the history of the CIA as seen through a fictitious agent played by The Bourne Identity's Matt Damon
REVIEW
Pros: With all the political thrillers released in the last few years (Munich, Syrirana), The Good Shepherd is intriguing drama set in the early days of the CIA that might be of interest to those who keep up on world events and might wonder how we got to where things are today. The script by Oscar winner Eric Roth (Forrest Gump) deals mainly with the rise of the fictitious Edward Wilson, played by Matt Damon, as he moves up the ranks while working intelligence (and counter-intelligence) during the Cold War. It's the pet project of actor Robert De Niro, directing his third film after taking it over from the late John Frankenheimer after his passing. De Niro has clearly gone into Kevin Costner and Oliver Stone territory, assembling an impressive cast including Matt Damon, who has a bit of spy experience from the two hit action thrillers The Bourne Identity and The Bourne Supremacy. That being said, the role of Edward Wilson is a lot more along the lines of playing the title character in Anthony Minghella's The Talented Mr. Ripley, which opened over Christmas weekend in 1999. Angelina Jolie appears her first live action film since 2005's hit action movie Mr. and Mrs. Smith, in which she played a secret agent, but in this case, she plays Wilson's neglected wife. The movie also features great actors like Michael Gambon, Billy Crudup, William Hurt, Alec Baldwin and a small role for Joe Pesci, who hasn't appeared in a movie in a long time.
In recent years, there's an increased interest in political and world matters, especially with the country being at war, so the subject matter will be of interest to those looking for a more realistic spy movie even than things like Casino Royale or Damon's Bourne movies.
Of course, the star power and subject matter will both be big draws, especially to older audiences who won't be as interested in some of the others movies in theatres, except maybe We Are Marshall. The film's older male audience might not be nearly as affected by the pre-holiday traveling and shopping that often keeps people from seeing movies on the weekend before Christmas either.
Cons: As seen by movies like Thirteen Days and Munich, Americans aren't necessarily interested in a history lesson over the holidays, and The Good Shepherd isn't likely to have long legs without getting any Oscar nominations. Since it's set during the Cold War, it won't be of much interest to those under 20 who might not even remember when there was a Cold War, and this will certainly be of more interest to guys over 20 than women of any age.
The movie's very slow and long, something that's sure to be mentioned in many of the negative reviews. The audience that is likely to be the most interested in seeing this (i.e. older males) regularly read reviews, so bad reviews are likely to hurt its opening, especially when they can choose one of the more stimulating sports movies opening this weekend.
Robert De Niro is a great actor, maybe one of the best, but he's not particularly revered as a director, and the fact he's directing it won't be as much of a draw, then if it was directed by someone like Spielberg or Ron Howard or Oliver Stone.
Comparisons:
Why I Should See It: It's been a long time since there's been a strong family comedy, and really, it's hard to beat Ben Stiller when it comes to comedy.
Why Not: This looks a bit too much like Jumanji or the first movie down a very bad path for Stilller… just look at Robin Williams.
Projections: $31 to 34 million opening; $165 million total
WE
ARE MARSHALL (Warner Bros.)
Starring Matthew McConaughey, Matthew Fox, David Strathairn, Ian McShane, Anthony Mackie, Brian Geraghty, January Jones, Kimberly Williams-Paisley, Huntley Ritter, Kate Mara
Directed by McG (Charlie's Angels; Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle); Written by Jamie Linden (debut)
Genre: Sports, Drama
Rated PG
Tagline: "From the ashes we rose."
Plot Summary: The pride and joy of Huntington, West Virginia is the Marshall University football team, and when most of them die in a tragic plane crash in 1970, the town and school has trouble getting over the accident until an unconventional new coach (Matthew McConaughey) is hired to rebuild its football program along with the team's distraught assistant coach (Matthew Fox), who never boarded the plane.
Of Note: This heart-rendering drama revisits a nearly forgotten event from the past that nearly destroyed a town; it's a different kind of film for director McG and Matthew McConaughey, and it's the first major film for "Lost" star Matthew Fox.
Mini-Review: It's pretty brave for this film to open on a placard that says "This is a true story," never mincing around with the usual conventions about being "inspired" or "based on" that's usually tacked onto this sort of thing. But it's well-deserved, as director McG and the cast do everything they can to take this tragic real-life story and turn it into a poignant and moving experience that rarely loses sight of the people affected by it. Though it starts out as a rather weepy emotional picture, when Matthew McConaughey enters the picture as one of his quirkiest characters to date, things start to get more entertaining and enjoyable. Matthew Fox does a good job as the constantly crying assistant coach Red Dawson, while David Strathairn is also enjoyable as the well-meaning university principal. Ian McShane and Kate Mara also have some nice moments as the father and fiancé of one of the victims. Sure, some of the emotions seems a bit forced and manipulative, but it's really a very rich and entertaining experience that does a good job avoiding the cliches that often hinder similar football-tinged dramas. Rating: 8/10
Pros: While it wouldn't at first seem like a weepy drama about a football team would be the kind of thing that people might want to see before Christmas, We Are Marshall is the type of heartwarming drama that audiences seem to enjoy, and this story about a town trying to rebuild after the death of the local football team is one that should build on its opening weekend audience over the holidays.
The first movie from director McG since helming Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle has an impressive cast including a fairly respected leading man in Matthew McConaughey, two popular television stars (Matthew Fox from "Lost" and Ian McShane from "Deadwood") and Oscar nominee David Strathairn (Good Night, And Good Luck.) The role of Jack Lengvel is a very different one for Matthew McConaughey, who has been playing more charismatic roles in recent years. Instead, this is a quirky and eccentric character that's not at all like the sex symbol he's been turned into in recent years, but it also may be his most dramatic film since his early court drama A Time to Kill, so it's really a return to form for the actor. His co-star Matthew Fox is at the heart of his own great comeback story, having not done very much since the success of his '90s television show "Party of Five," but making an amazing return a few years back to head the hit ABC show "Lost." Surprisingly, he hasn't made too many movies in his career, so he has virtually no box office history to go by, though both he and McConaughey have the kind of star power that gets them on the talk shows to promote the movie, which will surely help. The rest of the cast is equally impressive, including Kate Mara who had a small part as Heath Ledger's daughter in Brokeback Mountain, and what would be a sports movie without the great Anthony Mackie, who's already boxed (Million Dollar Baby) and played basketball (Crossover)? This talented actor has also been popping up in notable indie flicks like this year's Half Nelson.
Football movies have a very healthy history at the box office, particularly in recent years where movies like Remember the Titans and Friday Night Lights have done very well. Oliver Stone's Any Given Sunday opened over Christmas weekend in 1999 and it would become his second biggest hit after Platoon. The last two football dramas, Invincible and Gridiron Gang, both opened in busy weekends, neither the ideal for new movies, but they fared adequately against the odds.
We Are Marshall sneak-previewed last weekend, which is good, since it's the kind of movie that will do better on word-of-mouth from those who've seen it, except that it only had about 50-55% attendance.
Cons: In some ways, this could be hurt by the fact it's the third football movie of the year and people might already be worn out on them. Invincible had Mark Wahlberg and Gridiron Gang had The Rock, but this is a different role for McConaughey, rather than the loud, boisterous and often shirtless roles he's played in other recent movies. That might be a turn-off, especially to his many female fans, while it might also be too emotional for the guys. Though Fox is a bonafide star from being on "Lost," his draw at the box office is completely unproven, and the fact he doesn't get on the plane that crashes might make this movie the antecedent of his acclaimed show. Competition will be a killer this weekend and it's likely to lose a lot of potential business to Rocky Balboa and Night at the Museum, even if it's likely to have longer legs as people discover it.
As much as I hate to bring this up, the fact is that a lot of people who hated Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle are going to look at this as a "McG film" and not be able to get past the fact that it might be a different movie for the director. That includes the critics who will probably go to see the movie already knowing that they're going to trash it simply because of McG's involvement. Sure enough, there are a lot of negative reviews from critics who are already burnt out from the previous football dramas this year.
Comparisons:
Why I Should See It: The story of Marshall University and how the plane crash affected Huntington, West Virginia is a moving and powerful story.
Why Not: Yeah, not everyone is going to want to spend the holidays crying about dead football players.
Projections: $9 to 11 million opening weekend; $45 to 50 million total.
Opening on Christmas Day…
BLACK CHRISTMAS (Dimension
Films)
Starring Michelle Trachtenberg, Lacey Chabert, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Katie Cassidy, Andrea Martin, Jessica Harmon, Oliver Hudson
Written and directed by Glenn Morgan (Willard, writer of Final Destination and Final Destination 3)
Genre: Horror, Thriller, Remake
Rated R
Tagline: "This holiday season, the slay ride begins."
Plot Summary: On Christmas, a sorority house is terrorized by a killer who calls his victims on the phone before murdering them.
Of Note: Glenn Morgan, one half of the team behind Final Destination, remakes a holiday horror classic.
Pros: Four years before Halloween, five years before When a Stranger Calls and six years before Friday the 13th, director Bob Clark spearheaded a genre that would become hugely successful, the teen slasher flick, with the movie Black Christmas. (Of course, he stole both ideas from Italian horror master Mario Bava, but that's beside the point.) The premise was simple: get a bunch of hot young women together for a holiday and then systematically slaughter them one by one. That genre of horror has had its ups and downs, particularly as they ran out of holidays to celebrate--Labor Day of Death kind of dropped the ball—but with the sudden surge of horror with the 2003 remake of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, everyone has been rushing to get the remake rights to the horror movies of the '70s and '80s. Dimension Films jumped on Black Christmas and without any irony whatsoever, they're releasing it on Christmas Day.
The remake is directed by Glenn Morgan, one half of the team behind Final Destination, directing his second remake, the first being the remake of Willard starring Chrispen Glover, which bombed really badly in 2003. This time, he's assembled a mix of actresses from different places like Michelle Trachtenberg from "7th Heaven," Lacey Chabert from "Party of Five" and reunites with Mary Elizabeth Winstead, who starred in this year's horror threequel Final Destination 3.
The film's title and the fact it's being released on Christmas might be its biggest draw much like the decision by Fox to release their remake of The Omen on June 6, 2006. The fortuitous of movie and release date certainly helped that and one can expect that the more cynical of holiday revelers might not mind seeing people slaughtered on Christmas Day.You gotta love the Weinsteins for catering to Jewish horror fans over the Christmas holiday week, first with Wes Craven's hugely successful Scream movies, then with lesser efforts like the long-delayed Darkness and the Aussie horror flick Wolf Creek. With Black Christmas, they come full circle, as they remake one of the movies that started the wave of slasher films that ultimately led to Wes Craven spoofing them in Scream.
This looks like it's going to be really sick. None of those tame PG-13 horror movies we've been seeing too many of, but more like the hack 'n' slash, blood and gore movies that horror fans really want to see, as seen by the success of Hostel earlier this year.
Cons: There have been way too many remakes in the last couple of years, and they may have finally run their course, especially with so many of them having the exact same plot, usually involving a bunch of teens getting killed in gruesome ways.
A number of Christian groups have complained about the movie's release on Christmas Day, showing that almost nothing has changed in 30 years, but oddly, that might actually do more to spur horror fans to go see this, especially if they have nothing better to do. But otherwise, this seems a bit too gratuitous and violent to be much of a draw over the holidays. Really, the title is the only thing that makes it worthy of its Christmas release.
Dimension Films is only releasing the movie in about 1,000 theatres, which is less than most of their other holiday horror films, and they don't seem to have enough confidence in it to really market it properly.
Comparisons:
Why I Should See It: You really would have to be a sick cookie to go see this movie on Christmas Day, but hey, even I need something to do on December 25, right?
Why Not: You're sick of the ridiculous amount of horror remakes.
Projections: It probably will do some a bit of business on Christmas Day and the days after that (probably around $3 to 5 million from Monday to Thursday) and then another $3 to 4 million over the weekend to wind up with roughly $15 to 16 million total.
There are a lot of other movies coming out in the next two weeks, and here are a few more highlights:
VENUS (Miramax) Opening December 21
Starring Peter O'Toole, Vanessa Redgrave, Richard Griffiths, Leslie Phillips, Jodie Whittaker
Directed by Roger Michell (Notting Hill, Changing Lanes, Enduring Love, The Mother); Written by Hanif Kureishi (The Mother, London Kills Me, My Beautiful Laundrette)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Romance
Rated R
Plot Summary: A 20-year-old girl (Jodie Whittaker) disrupts the lives of two elderly actors (Peter O'Toole, Leslie Phillips) when one of them (O'Toole of course) becomes smitten with her, leading them to an unorthodox relationship.
Of Note: Peter O'Toole has been getting raves for his performance as an aged actor who falls for his best friend's niece who is over 50 years younger than him.
Comparisons: Harold and Maude, My Beautiful Laundrette, The Mother, Driving Lessons
Why I Should See It: This could be Peter O'Toole's last great movie!
Why Not: His relationship with a 20-year-old girl is pretty creepy.
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)
PERFUME - THE STORY OF A MURDERER (Paramount/Dreamworks) Opening December 27
Starring Ben Whishaw, Alan Rickman, Rachel Hurd-Wood, Dustin Hoffman
Directed by Thomas Tykwer (Run Lola Run, Heaven, The Princess and the Warrior); Written by Tom Tykwer, Andrew Birkin, Bernd Eichinger
Genre: Drama, Thriller, Period
Rated R (at least)
Tagline: "He lived to find beauty. He killed to possess it."
Plot Summary: Jean-Baptiste Grenouille (Ben Whishaw) was an orphan born on the streets of Paris who has an amazing sense of smell, something that leads him to a desire to be a perfumer, except that he his greatest desire is capture the scent of France's most beautiful women, which usually involves killing them.
Of Note: Thomas Tykwer, one of Germany's most successful directors (maybe after Wolfgang Peterson) adapts Patrick Süskind's novel, one of Germany's best selling books, into what has become Germany's highest grossing films ever!
Comparisons: The Silence of the Lambs, Hannibal, Murder by Numbers,
Why I Should See It: Tykwer's amazing vision successfully integrates a serial killer film with a period piece.
Why Not: Peter O'Toole may be pretty creepy in Venus, but he has nothing on this guy. Ladies, if you smell good, you're as good as a goner.
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)
MISS POTTER (Weinstein Company) Opening December 29
Starring Renee Zellwegger, Ewan McGregor, Emily Watson
Directed by Chris Noonan (Babe); Written by Richard Maltby Jr. (debut)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Biography
Rated PG (?)
Tagline: "The life of Beatrix Potter is the most enchanting tale of all."
Plot Summary: Beatrix Potter (Renee Zellwegger) is an imaginative single woman from a wealthy family, who'd rather spend time writing, drawing and talking to her cute animal friends than finding a man. Yes, she's quite insane, but for some reason, a good-looking editor (Ewan McGregor) realizes that Beatrix's eccentricities are his ticket to wealth and fame.
Of Note: Renee Zellwegger takes on the role of legendary childrens' author Beatrix Potter in this humorous biopic based on her early days as an author/painter.
Comparisons: Finding Neverland, The Hours, Cold Mountain, Cinderella Man, Bridge Jones' Diary
Why I Should See It: You're either a really big fan of Renee Zellwegger or a really big fan of Beatix Potter.
Why Not: I'm sure you can figure it out.
Mini-Review (Coming Soon!)
OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:
ARTHUR AND THE INVISIBLES (The Weinstein Company) Luc Besson takes on the children's book "Arthur and the Minimoys" in this live action/CGI amalgam starring Charlie and the Chocolate Factory's Freddy Highmore as a boy who discovers a magical world of little people while trying to find treasure left by his grandfather. Featuring the voices of Madonna, Snoop Dogg, Robert De Niro and David Bowie, it'll get a one-week L.A. Oscar qualifying release before its wide release on January 12.
THE CASE OF THE GRINNING CAT (First Run/Icarus Films) Chris Marker, the eccentric French filmmaker of La Jetee, which inspired Terry Gilliam's 12 Monkeys, makes a pseudo-political documentary kind of about the mysterious graphiti cats that are painted all over Paris, but is really about the 2002 French election. It opens at the Film Forum on Wednesday.
THE DEAD GIRL (First Look) - Karen Moncrieff, director of Blue Car, tells five stories of women whose lives are affected by the discovery of a naked, mutilated body in the desert. The stories deal with the woman who finds the body (Toni Collette), the victim's mother (Marcia Gay Harden), her roommate (Kerry Washington), and the dead girl (Brittany Murphy) herself.
FACTORY GIRL (Weinstein Company) Sienna Miller plays model/actress Edie Segwick in George Hickenlooper's biopic about Andy Warhol's famous muse. Starring Guy Pearce as Andy Warhol and Hayden Christensen as Bob Dylan, it opens in L.A. on Dec. 29 to be eligible for Oscars.
MATTHEW BARNEY: NO RESTRAINT (IFC Films) Alison Chernick's documentary about avant garde artists/filmmaker Matthew Barney and his latest movie Drawing Restraint 9, which had him cavorting with Icelandic pop star Björk and building all sorts of strange structures on a Japanese whaling vessel. Opens at the IFC Center on Wednesday, Dec. 20. Mini-Review: Matthew Barney's Drawing Restraint 9 was an odd but beautiful film that didn't make much sense, but really didn't have to make much sense. Though things aren't that much clearer from the two or three times that Barney directly answers Chernick's questions about his work, it is interesting to watch him work and see how he created some of the amazing visuals from the film. And yes, some of the ideas behind it are clearer once you see the doc, but knowing what it was about doesn't necessarily make that a better film nor does it make this a particularly effective doc. Rating: 7/10
THE TIGER AND THE SNOW (Strand Releasing) Italian Oscar-winner Roberto Benigni takes on the Iraq War in this story set in 2003, in which he plays a Roman poet who travels to Baghdad to retrieve the woman he loves (Benigni's wife Nicoletta Braschi), who has been injured in a bomb explosion. It opens in New York and L.A on Dec. 29. Mini-Review: Since Italy's Crown Prince of Comedy had great success with a romantic comedy set during the Holocaust, it makes sense that he would update his playground to the current war in Iraq. Unfortunately, "Benigni Goes to Baghdad" is a pretty silly idea, and a bit more than bothersome considering that this war is still very much going on right now and really isn't much of a laughing matter. Still, Benigni finds a way to make light of things, while his wife must be counts her blessings that her character's coma keeps the audience from seeing her roll her eyes at her husband's annoying antics. You could give Benigni some credit for trying to be timely and relevent, but the things he goes through to get medicine for his dying wife are silly at first and then get progressively more ludicrous. When it comes down to it, Benigni's quest to find comedy in the Muslim world falls quite flat, because it's a misguided effort that didn't really need that location to have worked as a romantic comedy. Rating: 5.5/10
UNCONSCIOUS (Regent Releasing) Spain's second most perverse filmmaker Joaquín Oristrell (Reinas) returns with a period comedy set in the early 20th Century about the pseudo-sexual relationship between a man and his 9-month pregnant sister-in-law after the disappearance of his brother.
Next week, the Weekend Warrior takes off!! See you in 2007!
Copyright 2006 Edward Douglas
Take on The Weekend Warrior in the box-office related movie games at:
Or enter the contests at the Warrior's other favorite haunt:
THE
WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final
update 12.21.06)
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
$33.4 |
N/A |
3,688 |
$9,056 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
New |
$18.3 |
N/A |
3,017 |
$6,066 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
1 |
The Pursuit of Happyness |
$15.8 |
-41% |
2,863 |
$5,519 |
2 |
|
4 |
New |
$11.0 |
N/A |
2,218 |
4,962 |
1 |
|
|
5 |
2 |
Eragon |
$10.8 |
-53% |
3,030 |
$3,564 |
2 |
|
6 |
New |
$10.4 |
N/A |
2,606 |
$3,991 |
1 |
|
|
7 |
3 |
Charlotte's Web |
$8.3 |
-28% |
3,728 |
$2,226 |
2 |
|
8 |
4 |
Happy Feet |
$5.2 |
-38% |
2,565 |
$2,027 |
6 |
|
9 |
5 |
The Holiday |
$4.4 |
-43% |
2,450 |
$1,784 |
3 |
|
10 |
6 |
Apocalypto |
$3.9 |
-49% |
2,144 |
$1,912 |
4 |
| Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
The weekend right before Christmas can be dicey, because let's face it, people are shopping and traveling and the last thing on their mind is going to the movies. Still, studios are constantly releasing movies on the weekend in hopes they'll do decent business over the following week where almost everyone is out of school or off work.
The movie expected to do the most business both this weekend and overall is the family action-adventure Night at the Museum teaming the star of 2004's biggest Christmas hit, Ben Stiller, with Shawn Levy, director of 2003's biggest Christmas hit Cheaper by the Dozen. Museum is Stiller's first big budget live action family comedy, and it'll have a lot of drawing power both to kids and the teen audience that likes Stiller's distinctive humor without having to worry about any other comedies in the market. As well or poorly as it does this weekend, expect it to pick up steam next Tuesday to end the year as one of its major powerhouses.
It may have to contend with the sixth chapter of the ongoing boxing saga of Rocky Balboa, as Sylvester Stallone returns after fifteen years to write, direct and star in the long-awaited movie that will open early on Wednesday and should drum up enough word-of-mouth to carry that business through the holidays. (Update: The movie made $6.4 million its opening Wednesday, which is pointing to a strong weekend in the $18 to 20 million range.)
Last week's Top 3 is likely to start slipping a bit with Will Smith's Pursuit of Happyness holding up well enough to fight Rocky for second place, while two other movies geared towards the guys will make a more gradual entrance into the marketplaces as Warner Bros.' football drama We Are Marshall, starring Matthew McConaughey and Matthew "Dr. Jack" Fox, takes on Robert De Niro's CIA thriller The Good Shepherd, starring Matt Damon. (By Sunday, we should know if this is a good weekend to be named Matt.)
Like with Steven Spielberg's Munich last year, Universal is going the unconventional route by releasing a slower-paced spy drama, knowing that its target audience of older males may be just as interested in the two sports movies, but Shepherd should narrowly defeat Marshall, as the latter takes up the slack in the coming week.
Really, this can be a tough weekend to predict because it's so close to Christmas, and as mentioned, some people will be traveling or doing last minute shopping. The last time Christmas landed on Monday, Mr. Tom Hanks killed the weekend with his holiday movie Cast Away, which made nearly $29 million, but the rest of the Top 5, including Nancy Meyers' romantic comedy What Women Want. Nicholas Cage's The Family Man and Sandra Bullock's Miss Congeniality, made another $50 million between them. Obviously, movies can make money on this weekend, though all but the family films could be slanted towards Friday.
Last year saw the release of no less than six new movies and a couple more expanding into wide release, though they opened slowly across the course of the week, including a few that only opened wide on Sunday. Jim Carrey's Fun with Dick and Jane and Steve Martin's Cheaper by the Dozen 2 got an early start by opening on Wednesday, but neither made more than $15 million. Instead, King Kong and Chronicles of Narnia took the top 2 spots once again with roughly $20 million each. Johnny Knoxville's The Ringer and Steven Spielberg's Munich opened on Friday to make $5 and 4 million while Jennifer Aniston's Rumor Has It... and the Aussie horror film Wolf Creek each opened on Christmas Sunday. Further options included Memoirs of a Geisha, which expanded wide to bring in $6.7 million, and The Producers went wide on Sunday. The Top 10 brought in roughly $95 million, though you have to account for the fact that a few of the movies only had one day's gross. Expect this weekend to do significantly better.
THE CHOSEN FEW (Best of the Rest of 2006):
Since this is the last column of the year and there are a lot of great movies being given limited release before opening wide in '07, we're going to do something a little different and feature six movies that are worth looking for if you're in a big city for the holidays.
LETTERS
FROM IWO JIMA (Warner Bros.) Opening December 20 (NY, LA.
SF)Starring Ken Watanabe, Kazunari Ninomiya, Tsuyoshi Ihara, Ryo Kase, Shido Nakamura, Yuki Matsuzaki, Hiroshi Watanabe, Takumi Bando, Nobumasa Sakagami, Takashi Yamaguchi, Nae Yuuki
Directed by Clint Eastwood (Flags of Our Fathers, Million Dollar Baby, Mystic River and dozens more); Written by Iris Yamashita (debut)
Genre: Drama, War
Rated R
Tagline: "From the director of 'Flags of Our Fathers' comes the completion of the Iwo Jima saga." (Does anyone else think it's weird to promote the movie by mentioning the one that for all intents and purposes, was a bomb that lost money?)
Plot Summary: On the island of Iwo Jima, the Japanese soldiers prepare for the impending invasion by U.S. forces, while a young solder named Saigo (Kazunari Ninomiya) wonders what they're doing there when there's no chance of them fending off the forces
Of Note: Clint Eastwood's sister piece acts as a prequel to Flags of Our Fathers, showing the Japanese side of the battle on Iwo Jima.
Comparisons: Flags of Our Fathers, The Thin Red Line, We Were Soldiers, Pearl Harbor
REVIEW
INTERVIEW (with writer Iris Yamashita)
THE PAINTED VEIL (Warner Independent) Opening December 20 (NY, LA)
Starring Naomi Watts, Edward Norton, Liev Schreiber, Toby Jones
Directed by John Curran (We Don't Live Here Anymore); Written by Ron Nyswaner (Philadelphia)
Genre: Drama, Period
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Sometimes the greater journey is the distance between two people."
Plot Summary: After getting married prematurely, a young couple (Edward Norton, Naomi Watts) move to Shanghai, where she immediately gets into an affair with another man (Liev Schreiber). When her husband finds out, he vengefully accepts a job to research a break of cholera in a small Chinese village, knowing full well that the journey may kill them.
Of Note: W. Somerset Maugham's 1920's romance novel, which was already turned into a 1934 film starring Greta Garbo, is revived thanks to the efforts of Edward Norton and Naomi Watts, who came on board to produce the film as written by Ron Nyswaner of Philadelphia.
Comparisons: The White Countess, The Piano, The English Patient, The Good German, Pride & Prejudice, Shanghai Triad
Mini-Review: This really is a beautiful story, a rich character study that showcases another fine performance from Watts and shows why she's such a sought-after actress. Edward Norton has the bigger challenge, having to work hard to get over the fact that his character is mostly unlikable, but the way the two actors play off each other as a dysfunctional married couple makes it clear why they both were so keen on getting this film made. Toby Jones of "Infamous" gives another great performance, and there are some nice surprises in the form of Infernal Affairs' Anthony Wong in an English-speaking role as an army captain and Diane "Emma Peel" Riggs as a Mother Superior at a local orphanage. Curran does a commendable job capturing the look and feel of China of the period, while Alexandre Deplat provides another gorgeous score, really making it the type of film that will appeal to those with older film sensibilities. Then again, those who don't normally go for this kind of thing might also be surprised by the brisk pace and interesting plot developments, which make it such a memorable film experience. Rating: 8/10
CURSE
OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER (Sony Classics) Opening December 21(NY),
December 22 (select cities)Starring Chow Yun-Fat, Gong Li
Directed by Zhang Yimou (Hero, House of Flying Daggers, Shanghai Triad, Red Sorghum, Raise the Red Lantern and many more); Written by Wu Nan, Bian Zhihong
Genre: Action, Adventure, Drama, Fantasy, Romance, Period
Rated R
Tagline: "Unspeakable secrets are hidden within the Forbidden City." (I prefer my alternative: "And you thought YOUR family was bad!")
Plot Summary: In the 10th Century, during the Tang Dynasty, China's Emperor (Chow Yun Fat) returns home to celebrate the Chong Yang Festival with his family, but his wife (Gong Li) has discovered that her husband has been putting poison in her medicine, causing a family rift that will ultimately turn into a war.
Of Note: After ten years, director Zhang Yimou reunites with his original ingénue Gong Li for the third movie in his historic martial arts trilogy, this one transplanting a famous Chinese stage play into the time of the Tang Dynasty. It's also Zhang's first time working with Hong Kong legend Chow Yun-Fat.
Comparisons: Hero, The House of Flying Daggers, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, The Promise, War of the Roses, Red The Raise Lantern, etc.
(Oddly, Zhang Yimou's production of Tan Dun's opera "The First Emperor" will be premiering at the Metropolitan Opera in New York on the same night his movie opens.)
REVIEW
INTERVIEW (with Gong Li)
CHILDREN
OF MEN (Universal) - Opening December 25Starring Clive Owen, Julianne Moore, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Charlie Hunnam, Michael Caine
Directed by Alfonso Cuarón (Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Y Tu Mama Tambien, The Little Princess, Great Expectations); Written by Alfonso Cuarón, Timothy J. Sexton (teleplays for "Walkout", "Live from Baghdad", "Boycott")
Genre: Sci-Fi, Action, Drama, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "No children. No future. No hope."
Plot Summary: In the year 2027, the world hasn't seen a new child born in 18 years, a mystery that has created incredible strife and stress on the world's population. Theo (Clive Owen) is a government official, who finds himself on the run when his ex-wife Jules (Julianne Moore) contacts him and he learns that she's a leader in the underground faction known as The Human Project, who are fighting against the government's inability to solve the problem.
Of Note: Director Alfonso Cuarón takes on the future of the world in this hypothetical premise based on the novel by P.D. James about a world with no children and what happens when various factions discover the existence of a pregnant woman.
Comparisons: The films of Stanley Kubrick, particularly Clockwork Orange and 2001, 12 Monkeys, 1984, Brazil
REVIEW
INTERVIEW (with Alfonso Cuarón)
NOTES ON A SCANDAL (Warner Bros.) Opening December 27
Starring Judi Dench, Cate Blanchett, Bill Nighy, Andrew Simpson, Phil Davis, Michael Maloney, Juno Temple, Max Lewis
Directed by Richard Eyre (Stage Beauty); Written by Patrick Marber (Closer, Asylum)
Genre: Drama, War
Rated R
Tagline: "One woman's mistake is another's opportunity…"
Plot Summary: Barbara Covett (Judi Dench) becomes interested in the school's pretty new art teacher Sheba Hart (Cate Blanchett) and tries to be friends with her, but when she discovers that Sheba has been having an affair with her 15-year-old student, Barbara suddenly realizes that she can use that to her advantage.
Of Note: A character and dialogue driven British thriller starring two of the most respected British actors (Dench and Nighy) and one of the most respected younger actresses, Cate Blanchett. Dench and Blanchett have already received Golden Globe nominations as has the film's screenwriter Patrick Marber, and it's likely that all of them will be dressing up for Oscar night.
Comparisons: Fatal Attraction, Basic Instinct, Closer, Asylum, Birth
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)
INTERVIEW (with Patrick Marber)
PAN'S
LABYRINTH (Picturehouse) Opening December 29Starring Ivana Baquero, Doug Jones, Sergi López, Ariadna Gil, Maribel Verdú, Álex Angulo, Roger Casamajor, Sebastián Haro, Mina Lira, Federico Luppi, Ivan Massagué, Chema Ruiz, Manolo Solo, Milo Taboada
Written and directed by Guillermo del Toro (Hellboy, Blade II, The Devil's Backbone, Mimic, Cronos)
Genre: Drama, Fantasy, Thriller, Period
Rated R
Tagline: "Innocence Has A Power Evil Cannot Imagine."
Plot Summary: Set in Spain 1944, as the Spanish Civil War is winding down, a young girl named Ofelia (Ivan Baquero) arrives with her pregnant mother (Ariadna Gil) at the expansive villa of a military captain (Sergí Lopez), who is trying to stave off attacks by rebel forces. Upon arriving, Ofelia discovers a hedge mage where she encounters a Faun (Doug Jones) who assigns her three tasks that if she accomplishes, she can accept her rightful place as princess of the Underworld.
Of Note: Hellboy director Guillermo del Toro makes his second genre film set in Spain at the time of the Spanish Civil War.
Comparisons: The Devil's Backbone, Brazil, The Adventures of Baron Munchausen
REVIEW
INTERVIEW (with director Guillermo Del Toro)
ROCKY
BALBOA (MGM)Starring Sylvester Stallone, Burt Young, Milo Ventimiglia, Tony Burton, James Francis Kelly III, Antonio Tarver, Geraldine Hughes
Written and directed by Sylvester Stallone (writer of Rocky, writer and director of Rocky II, Rocky III, and Rocky IV: The Quest for Peace)
Genre: Boxing, Drama
Rated PG
Tagline: "It ain't over 'til it's over."
Plot Summary: After the death of his wife Adrian, Rocky Balboa (Sylvester Stallone) thinks about returning to boxing after a computer simulation match with the current heavyweight champion Mason "The Line" Dixon (Antonio Tarver) shows him coming out the victor. Cue the fanfare, it's GO TIME!
Of Note: After almost sixteen years, Sylvester Stallone returns to the character and franchise that made him famous with a poignant return to the Rocky franchise.
Mini-Review: It tends to shock people when they discover that I've never seen a Rocky film, no not one. Yet knowing Sylvester Stallone's history and that of the character, you can't help but admire his drive to get this film made. Surprisingly, he pulls off a convincing performance and makes an entertaining film that's as much or more about the current times as it is about where Sly must be in his career right now. Yes, in a year of amazing comebacks, Sly delivers a moving performance as the aged boxer, and when he gets into the ring with the heavyweight champion (boxer Antonio Tarver), you can't help but cheer at the classy way the fight is depicted--telecast live in a real HBO moment that adds even more credibility--and completely forget that you're watching a 60-year-old actor/boxer. Adding to that are great supporting roles from the returning Burt Young and newcomer Geraldine Hughes as a fill-in for Adrian, and you end up with a great boxing film that is easy to forgive when it gets a bit corny. Rating: 8/10
Pros: There are comebacks and there are comebacks, and there's nothing more exciting than when a hopeful comeback achieves fruition with a film worthy of that comeback. The case of Sylvester Stallone is an interesting one, because he's been almost completely out of the limelight in recent years. Who knows what happened to Sly in the last few years, as the popularity and acclaim he developed early in his career were chewed up and spit out by a number of horrendously bad movies.
But it wasn't always like that. 30 years ago, Stallone was this 30-year-old up 'n' coming actor, already a bit too old to be breaking in, who started hocking his script around Hollywood for a movie set in Philadelphia about a slow-witted boxer named Rocky Balboa. Not only was the film a critical and commercial success, but it was nominated for ten Oscars, winning three, though ironically none for Sly. (It would be his first and last chance to get the honor of a nomination.)
Stallone went on to write and direct the next three Rocky movies, as well as develop another one of his own characters, a vengeful soldier known as Rambo. (He'll be making another Rambo movie sometime in the next year, too!) The five Rocky movies that were released in the 15 years between 1975 and 1990 earned a combined gross of nearly $500 million, which is fairly impressive, though the last of the movies, Rocky V, was a huge bomb, maybe because the character outstayed his welcome. Or so it would seem, except that Stallone is now twice as old as when he starred in the first Rocky movie, and he's back reviving the character with many beloved old faces and a few new ones to make the film more modern. This sixth movie seems to have come from out of nowhere, so it's hard not to be skeptical that it's not being done solely to cash in and revive Stallone's career, and yet, the critics seem to be loving it, which will be enough old Rocky fans to give it a chance.
With a production budget of $24 million, Rocky Balboa not only offers a potential comeback for Sylvester Stallone, but it's also a chance for the newly revived MGM to actually turn a profit on one of their movies after releasing a number of bombs in the last few months. This will certainly be the widest release for the "new MGM" since their return, and opening on Wednesday should help it build enough positive word-of-mouth to hold up its business through the weekend and over the holidays.
The film's PG rating will mean that fathers will be able to bring their sons to introduce them to the character they loved as a kid/teen, though they're just as likely to bring the kids to the much higher profile Night at the Museum.
Cons: It's been over 16 years since the last Rocky movie and Sylvester Stallone has spent most of that time turning himself and his career into a bit of a joke, mainly by working with the likes of Renny Harlin and doing straight-to-video movies. Can returning to his most famous character be enough to get people to forget all the bad movies he's made in the last 20 years and get some of them to return to the fold? Certainly, a lot of older males will already be skeptical about this, enough to wait until it comes out on DVD or cable, which might keep this from doing hugely well.
One has to figure that anyone under 20 probably won't even know who Rocky is, so it will be relying heavily on older males wanting to introduce their kids to the character. Women probably won't have very much interest in the movie either, something that's so important for a movie to do well these days.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Rocky V |
11/16/90 |
2,053 |
$14.07 |
$6,853 |
$40.11 |
|
|
Rocky IV |
11/27/85 |
1,325 |
$19.99 |
$15,087 |
$127.87 |
|
|
Rocky III |
5/28/83 |
939 |
$12.43 |
$13,237 |
$124.15 |
|
|
Rocky II |
6/15/79 |
unknown |
$6.39 |
unknown |
$85.18 |
|
|
Rocky I |
11/21/76 |
unknown |
N/A |
unknown |
$117.24 |
|
|
Driven |
4/27/01 |
2,905 |
$12.17 |
$4,190 |
$32.62 |
|
|
Cliffhanger |
5/28/93 |
2,333 |
$20.46 |
$8,770 |
$84.05 |
|
|
Cinderella Man |
6/3/05 |
2,812 |
$18.32 |
$6,515 |
$61.65 |
|
|
Million Dollar Baby |
12/17/04 |
2,010 |
$9.31 |
$12.27 |
$6,102 |
$100.42 |
|
The Hurricane |
1/14/00 |
1,465 |
$4.06 |
$9.01 |
$6,150 |
$50.67 |
Why I Should See It: Sylvester Stallone returns to his most popular character, who is possibly one of the great film characters of all time, and surprisingly, he delivers, both in the ring and out!
Why Not: Other directors have made far better boxing movies since the last Rocky movie, so one has to wonder if Rocky can stand the test of time after 16 years.
Projections: $8 to 9 million on Weds/Thurs, $17 to 19 million weekend, and $70 to 75 million total. (Update: Rocky Balboa made roughly $6.4 million on Wednesday, so it will probably be closer to $10-11 million before the weekend.)
THE GOOD SHEPHERD (Universal)Starring Matt Damon, Angelina Jolie, William Hurt, John Turturro, Robert De Niro, Alec Baldwin, Billy Crudup, Michael Gambon, Gabriel Macht, Tammy Blanchard, Vladimir Mashkov, Joe Pesci
Directed by Robert De Niro (A Bronx Tale, The Score); Written by Eric Roth (Forrest Gump, Munich, The Postman, The Horse Whisperer, The Insider, Ali)
Genre: Drama, Espionage, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: "The true story of the birth of the CIA through the eyes of a man who never existed."
Plot Summary: The story of how Edward Wilson (Matt Damon) went from Yale letterman to joining secret societies, working for England's OSS and being around for the formation of the Central Intelligence Agency.
Of Note: Robert De Niro and Eric Roth, writer of Munich, delves into the history of the CIA as seen through a fictitious agent played by The Bourne Identity's Matt Damon
REVIEW
Pros: With all the political thrillers released in the last few years (Munich, Syrirana), The Good Shepherd is intriguing drama set in the early days of the CIA that might be of interest to those who keep up on world events and might wonder how we got to where things are today. The script by Oscar winner Eric Roth (Forrest Gump) deals mainly with the rise of the fictitious Edward Wilson, played by Matt Damon, as he moves up the ranks while working intelligence (and counter-intelligence) during the Cold War. It's the pet project of actor Robert De Niro, directing his third film after taking it over from the late John Frankenheimer after his passing. De Niro has clearly gone into Kevin Costner and Oliver Stone territory, assembling an impressive cast including Matt Damon, who has a bit of spy experience from the two hit action thrillers The Bourne Identity and The Bourne Supremacy. That being said, the role of Edward Wilson is a lot more along the lines of playing the title character in Anthony Minghella's The Talented Mr. Ripley, which opened over Christmas weekend in 1999. Angelina Jolie appears her first live action film since 2005's hit action movie Mr. and Mrs. Smith, in which she played a secret agent, but in this case, she plays Wilson's neglected wife. The movie also features great actors like Michael Gambon, Billy Crudup, William Hurt, Alec Baldwin and a small role for Joe Pesci, who hasn't appeared in a movie in a long time.
In recent years, there's an increased interest in political and world matters, especially with the country being at war, so the subject matter will be of interest to those looking for a more realistic spy movie even than things like Casino Royale or Damon's Bourne movies.
Of course, the star power and subject matter will both be big draws, especially to older audiences who won't be as interested in some of the others movies in theatres, except maybe We Are Marshall. The film's older male audience might not be nearly as affected by the pre-holiday traveling and shopping that often keeps people from seeing movies on the weekend before Christmas either.
Cons: As seen by movies like Thirteen Days and Munich, Americans aren't necessarily interested in a history lesson over the holidays, and The Good Shepherd isn't likely to have long legs without getting any Oscar nominations. Since it's set during the Cold War, it won't be of much interest to those under 20 who might not even remember when there was a Cold War, and this will certainly be of more interest to guys over 20 than women of any age.
The movie's very slow and long, something that's sure to be mentioned in many of the negative reviews. The audience that is likely to be the most interested in seeing this (i.e. older males) regularly read reviews, so bad reviews are likely to hurt its opening, especially when they can choose one of the more stimulating sports movies opening this weekend.
Robert De Niro is a great actor, maybe one of the best, but he's not particularly revered as a director, and the fact he's directing it won't be as much of a draw, then if it was directed by someone like Spielberg or Ron Howard or Oliver Stone.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Syriana |
11/25/05 |
1,752 |
$1.49 |
$11.74 |
$6,699 |
$50.82 |
|
The Bourne Supremacy |
7/23/04 |
3,165 |
$52.52 |
$16,595 |
$170.45 |
|
|
The Bourne Identity |
6/14/02 |
2,638 |
$27.12 |
$10,281 |
$121.38 |
|
|
The Talented Mr. Ripley |
12/25/99 |
2,307 |
$12.74 |
$5,522 |
$81.29 |
|
|
Taking Lives |
3/19/04 |
2,705 |
$11.46 |
$4,236 |
$32.68 |
|
|
Beyond Borders |
10/25/03 |
1,798 |
$2.08 |
$1,155 |
$4.43 |
|
|
Munich |
12/23/05 |
532 |
$6.04 |
$11,355 |
$47.38 |
|
|
The Score |
7/13/01 |
2,129 |
$19.02 |
$8,933 |
$71.07 |
|
|
A Bronx Tale |
10/1/93 |
1,077 |
$3.75 |
$3,482 |
$17.24 |
|
|
A Beautiful Mind |
1/4/02 |
1,853 |
$21.21 |
$16.57 |
$8,940 |
$170.71 |
|
Thirteen Days |
1/12/01 |
2,029 |
$0.64 |
$9.78 |
$4,820 |
$34.57 |
Why I Should See It: Robert De Niro and screenwriter Eric Roth
have created an intriguing history of the CIA.
Why Not: It's sooooo slow and sooooo long…
Projections: $9 to 11 million over the weekend; $45 million total.
NIGHT
AT THE MUSEUM (20th Century Fox)
Starring Ben Stiller, Carla Gugino, Dick Van Dyke, Mickey Rooney, Bill Cobbs,
Ricky Gervais, Kim Raver, Robin Williams, Owen Wilson, Steve Coogan
Directed by Shawn Levy (Big Fat Liar, Cheaper by the Dozen, The Pink Panther);
Written by Robert Ben Garant, Thomas Lennon (The Pacifier, Taxi, Herbie:
Fully Loaded, Let's Go To Prison, and the upcoming Reno 911! Miami and Balls
of Fury)
Genre: Action, Adventure, Comedy
Rated PG
Tagline: "This Christmas, it won't be a silent night."
Plot Summary: When the lights go out at the Museum of Natural History, the
night watchman Larry Daley (Ben Stiller) finds out that all of the exhibits have
been brought to life by a magical Egyptian tablet.
Of Note: Ben Stiller takes on his first live action family film with the
help of director Shawn Levy (Cheaper by the Dozen) and writers Garant
and Lennon (The Pacifier), who have had substantial experience having
family hits.
Mini-Review: It's a good thing this movie has a strong premise to
get people excited about it, because otherwise, Ben Stiller is doing the
exact same schtick he's been doing in every single movie of his for the
last few years, something that would get tiring otherwise. Aside from the
fact that Stiller could have been replaced by any number
of
comic actors to make this a better movie, the premise does win you over
pretty quickly, and even after Larry's first night when you think
the movie's shot its wad, they're still a few surprises up Stilller and
Levy's sleeves to keep things fun. Sure, a lot of the plot developments
are predictable if you've seen any other family holiday films, but there
are fun moments like
when Stiller goes toe-to-toe with his
clueless boss...played by Ricky Gervais, of course, but even
that's not as funny as the silly spectacle that is Stiller's slapfest with
a capunchin
monkey. Fortunately, there's a great
cast of supporting characters to keep things interesting, like Robin Williams,
playing down his normal over-the-top
humor
as Teddy Roosevelt, to keep from stealing the spotlight. It's also
always fun to see Dick Van
Dyke and Mickey Rooney in any role, and they have some fun moments,
as Stiller often steps into the straight man role. (Owen Wilson and Steve
Coogan aren't nearly as funny as dueling diorama characters, though it's
a fun idea.) The formula family filmmaking
aside--of course, Larry needs to prove himself to his young son and win
over the pretty museum guide--the movie does get better as it goes along
by varying the humor enough
to
keep
everyone
from small children to grandparents at least mildly entertained. Review: 7/10
Pros: Sometime in the last five years, Ben Stiller went from being
an underground cult sensation to becoming a huge mainstream star, right
up there with the likes of Jim Carrey, Eddie Murphy and he's even approaching
Adam Sandler status. He's also become an actor "most likely to make
a cameo" having shown up in recent comedy bombs like School for Scoundrels
and Tenacious D in The Pick of Destiny. The most interesting
aspect of Stiller's career is how he's gone from being a popular comic
among teens and older to doing more kiddie movies like the 2005 Memorial
Day hit Madagascar, and his latest movie is his first starring
vehicle since then, again following in the footsteps of Murphy, Robin
Williams, Steve Martin, Jack Black and others who have found even greater
success as family stars. Both Williams and Martin revived failing careers
with family films, and Murphy's only big hits in recent years have been
films like Daddy Day Care and the Doctor Dolittle movies.
(Dreamgirls will probably change that.)
Night at the Museum is a bit different from other family comedies,
as it's more of a big budget action movie ala Robin Williams' Jumaji
or Eddie Murphy's Thanksgiving hit The Haunted Mansion. In
both cases, they put a popular comic actor into strange effects-driven
situations, and Night at the Museum will be Stiller's most expensive
project, reportedly budgeted at over $120 million. The movie has a lot
of action and impressive FX work if the living T-Rex skeleton is anything
to go by, which will make it an even bigger draw than his normal comic
schtick.
In this case, Stiller's foray into live action family comedy is shepherded
along by director Shawn Levy, who found the perfect formula to bring family
audiences into theatres over the holidays with Cheaper by the Dozen,
and even had a hit earlier this year with Steve Martin's The Pink Panther. Museum's
script is written by "Reno 911!" creators Ben Garant and Thomas Lennon,
who have found their own family film success with movies like Vin Diesel's The
Pacifier and Lindsay Lohan's Herbie: Fully Loaded, both for
Disney.
Stiller has an amazing supporting cast for this one including living
legends Dick Van Dyke and Mickey Rooney, both making their first big
screen film appearance in many, many years, and he has a bit of help
from Robin Williams, the man with tons of live action family experience,
in this case playing Teddy Roosevelt. Other familiar faces for older
viewers will be Ricky Gervais of the British "Office" and Steve
Coogan, who unfortunately starred in Disney's failed Around the World in
80 Days. Owen Wilson, who camoed in Around the World, makes
a small cameo in this after appearing in some of Stiller's biggest hits,
including Zoolander, the Meet the… movies and Starsky & Hutch.
There's a lot of room for this movie to do well, there having been a serious
dearth of comedies at the box office leaving very little competition for
Stiller's latest, and he already has a bit of experience as a Christmas,
having starred in the highest opening Christmas hit, Meet the Fockers,
two years ago. Ironically, the year before that was Levy's remake of Cheaper
by the Dozen.
The good thing is that this movie looks like it has a simple enough premise
and humor that it should appeal to a wide range of audiences, something that
makes it the perfect holiday family film. With that in mind, it should do
very well next week among those who are off work and out of school, and it's
likely to do far better than its opening weekend might suggest.
Besides opening in over 3,000 theatres, Night at the Museum will also
be opening in a number of IMAX theatres, which will be able to hold a lot
more people and charge higher ticket prices, which should up the per-theatre
average across the board.
Cons: Thinking that they can put a big star in a family film and
have a sure-fire hit can sometimes backfire, as was the case with Jackie
Chan in movies like the similarly-minded Around the World in 80 Days,
an expensive family action-comedy which bombed and lost millions. (As mentioned
above, Steve Coogan and Owen Wilson were both part of that experience)
This is definitely a family film, which means that Stiller's snobby teen
fans and the older fans who flocked to the Meet the… movies might
not be as interested in the humor that's most definitely pointed towards
kids from 5 to 15.
The movie should do a lot of business on Friday, though it could be hit
bad by the holiday traveling and shopping over the weekend, as people wait
to
see it until the week between Christmas and New Year's. In general, movies
that open before Christmas don't do nearly as well as those that work after
(as seen by the Cheaper by the Dozen movies and Meet the Fockers).
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Madagascar |
5/27/05 |
4,131 |
$61.01 |
$14,769 |
$193.14 |
|
|
Meet the Fockers |
12/24/04 |
3,518 |
$24.40 |
$46.12 |
$13,110 |
$275.94 |
|
Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story |
6/18/04 |
2,694 |
$30.07 |
$11,162 |
$114.06 |
|
|
Starsky & Hutch |
3/5/04 |
3,185 |
$28.10 |
$8,824 |
$88.20 |
|
|
Zoolander |
9/28/01 |
2,507 |
$15.70 |
$6,262 |
$45.16 |
|
|
Meet the Parents |
10/6/00 |
2,614 |
$28.62 |
$10,949 |
$166.23 |
|
|
The Pink Panther |
3/10/06 |
3,477 |
$20.22 |
$5,815 |
$82.23 |
|
|
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 |
12/23/05 |
3,175 |
$5.28 |
$15.34 |
$4,832 |
$82.41 |
|
Cheaper By the Dozen |
12/26/03 |
3,298 |
$8.18 |
$27.56 |
$8,356 |
$128.03 |
|
The Pacifier |
3/4/05 |
3,131 |
$30.55 |
$9,758 |
$113.01 |
|
|
Around the World in 80 Days |
6/18/04 |
2,801 |
$2.79 |
$7.58 |
$2,705 |
$24.00 |
|
The Haunted Mansion |
11/28/03 |
3,122 |
$9.77 |
$24.28 |
$7,776 |
$73.06 |
|
Jumanji |
12/15/95 |
2,487 |
$11.08 |
$4,455 |
$100.48 |
Why I Should See It: It's been a long time since there's been a strong family comedy, and really, it's hard to beat Ben Stiller when it comes to comedy.
Why Not: This looks a bit too much like Jumanji or the first movie down a very bad path for Stilller… just look at Robin Williams.
Projections: $31 to 34 million opening; $165 million total
WE
ARE MARSHALL (Warner Bros.)Starring Matthew McConaughey, Matthew Fox, David Strathairn, Ian McShane, Anthony Mackie, Brian Geraghty, January Jones, Kimberly Williams-Paisley, Huntley Ritter, Kate Mara
Directed by McG (Charlie's Angels; Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle); Written by Jamie Linden (debut)
Genre: Sports, Drama
Rated PG
Tagline: "From the ashes we rose."
Plot Summary: The pride and joy of Huntington, West Virginia is the Marshall University football team, and when most of them die in a tragic plane crash in 1970, the town and school has trouble getting over the accident until an unconventional new coach (Matthew McConaughey) is hired to rebuild its football program along with the team's distraught assistant coach (Matthew Fox), who never boarded the plane.
Of Note: This heart-rendering drama revisits a nearly forgotten event from the past that nearly destroyed a town; it's a different kind of film for director McG and Matthew McConaughey, and it's the first major film for "Lost" star Matthew Fox.
Mini-Review: It's pretty brave for this film to open on a placard that says "This is a true story," never mincing around with the usual conventions about being "inspired" or "based on" that's usually tacked onto this sort of thing. But it's well-deserved, as director McG and the cast do everything they can to take this tragic real-life story and turn it into a poignant and moving experience that rarely loses sight of the people affected by it. Though it starts out as a rather weepy emotional picture, when Matthew McConaughey enters the picture as one of his quirkiest characters to date, things start to get more entertaining and enjoyable. Matthew Fox does a good job as the constantly crying assistant coach Red Dawson, while David Strathairn is also enjoyable as the well-meaning university principal. Ian McShane and Kate Mara also have some nice moments as the father and fiancé of one of the victims. Sure, some of the emotions seems a bit forced and manipulative, but it's really a very rich and entertaining experience that does a good job avoiding the cliches that often hinder similar football-tinged dramas. Rating: 8/10
Pros: While it wouldn't at first seem like a weepy drama about a football team would be the kind of thing that people might want to see before Christmas, We Are Marshall is the type of heartwarming drama that audiences seem to enjoy, and this story about a town trying to rebuild after the death of the local football team is one that should build on its opening weekend audience over the holidays.
The first movie from director McG since helming Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle has an impressive cast including a fairly respected leading man in Matthew McConaughey, two popular television stars (Matthew Fox from "Lost" and Ian McShane from "Deadwood") and Oscar nominee David Strathairn (Good Night, And Good Luck.) The role of Jack Lengvel is a very different one for Matthew McConaughey, who has been playing more charismatic roles in recent years. Instead, this is a quirky and eccentric character that's not at all like the sex symbol he's been turned into in recent years, but it also may be his most dramatic film since his early court drama A Time to Kill, so it's really a return to form for the actor. His co-star Matthew Fox is at the heart of his own great comeback story, having not done very much since the success of his '90s television show "Party of Five," but making an amazing return a few years back to head the hit ABC show "Lost." Surprisingly, he hasn't made too many movies in his career, so he has virtually no box office history to go by, though both he and McConaughey have the kind of star power that gets them on the talk shows to promote the movie, which will surely help. The rest of the cast is equally impressive, including Kate Mara who had a small part as Heath Ledger's daughter in Brokeback Mountain, and what would be a sports movie without the great Anthony Mackie, who's already boxed (Million Dollar Baby) and played basketball (Crossover)? This talented actor has also been popping up in notable indie flicks like this year's Half Nelson.
Football movies have a very healthy history at the box office, particularly in recent years where movies like Remember the Titans and Friday Night Lights have done very well. Oliver Stone's Any Given Sunday opened over Christmas weekend in 1999 and it would become his second biggest hit after Platoon. The last two football dramas, Invincible and Gridiron Gang, both opened in busy weekends, neither the ideal for new movies, but they fared adequately against the odds.
We Are Marshall sneak-previewed last weekend, which is good, since it's the kind of movie that will do better on word-of-mouth from those who've seen it, except that it only had about 50-55% attendance.
Cons: In some ways, this could be hurt by the fact it's the third football movie of the year and people might already be worn out on them. Invincible had Mark Wahlberg and Gridiron Gang had The Rock, but this is a different role for McConaughey, rather than the loud, boisterous and often shirtless roles he's played in other recent movies. That might be a turn-off, especially to his many female fans, while it might also be too emotional for the guys. Though Fox is a bonafide star from being on "Lost," his draw at the box office is completely unproven, and the fact he doesn't get on the plane that crashes might make this movie the antecedent of his acclaimed show. Competition will be a killer this weekend and it's likely to lose a lot of potential business to Rocky Balboa and Night at the Museum, even if it's likely to have longer legs as people discover it.
As much as I hate to bring this up, the fact is that a lot of people who hated Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle are going to look at this as a "McG film" and not be able to get past the fact that it might be a different movie for the director. That includes the critics who will probably go to see the movie already knowing that they're going to trash it simply because of McG's involvement. Sure enough, there are a lot of negative reviews from critics who are already burnt out from the previous football dramas this year.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Gridiron Gang |
9/15/06 |
3,504 |
$14.14 |
$4,114 |
$38.55 |
|
|
Invincible |
8/25/06 |
2,917 |
$17.03 |
$5,839 |
$57.79 |
|
|
Remember the Titans |
9/29/00 |
1,865 |
$20.91 |
$11,212 |
$115.60 |
|
|
Friday Night Lights |
10/8/04 |
2,667 |
$20.27 |
$7,600 |
$61.19 |
|
|
Any Given Sunday |
12/24/99 |
2,505 |
$7.05 |
$13.58 |
$5,421 |
$75.53 |
|
Two for the Money |
10/7/05 |
2,391 |
$8.70 |
$3,640 |
$22.15 |
|
|
Sahara |
4/8/05 |
3,154 |
$18.07 |
$5,729 |
$68.64 |
|
|
A Time to Kill |
7/26/96 |
2,123 |
$4.81 |
$14.82 |
$6,981 |
$108.77 |
Why I Should See It: The story of Marshall University and how the plane crash affected Huntington, West Virginia is a moving and powerful story.
Why Not: Yeah, not everyone is going to want to spend the holidays crying about dead football players.
Projections: $9 to 11 million opening weekend; $45 to 50 million total.
Opening on Christmas Day…
BLACK CHRISTMAS (Dimension
Films)Starring Michelle Trachtenberg, Lacey Chabert, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Katie Cassidy, Andrea Martin, Jessica Harmon, Oliver Hudson
Written and directed by Glenn Morgan (Willard, writer of Final Destination and Final Destination 3)
Genre: Horror, Thriller, Remake
Rated R
Tagline: "This holiday season, the slay ride begins."
Plot Summary: On Christmas, a sorority house is terrorized by a killer who calls his victims on the phone before murdering them.
Of Note: Glenn Morgan, one half of the team behind Final Destination, remakes a holiday horror classic.
Pros: Four years before Halloween, five years before When a Stranger Calls and six years before Friday the 13th, director Bob Clark spearheaded a genre that would become hugely successful, the teen slasher flick, with the movie Black Christmas. (Of course, he stole both ideas from Italian horror master Mario Bava, but that's beside the point.) The premise was simple: get a bunch of hot young women together for a holiday and then systematically slaughter them one by one. That genre of horror has had its ups and downs, particularly as they ran out of holidays to celebrate--Labor Day of Death kind of dropped the ball—but with the sudden surge of horror with the 2003 remake of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, everyone has been rushing to get the remake rights to the horror movies of the '70s and '80s. Dimension Films jumped on Black Christmas and without any irony whatsoever, they're releasing it on Christmas Day.
The remake is directed by Glenn Morgan, one half of the team behind Final Destination, directing his second remake, the first being the remake of Willard starring Chrispen Glover, which bombed really badly in 2003. This time, he's assembled a mix of actresses from different places like Michelle Trachtenberg from "7th Heaven," Lacey Chabert from "Party of Five" and reunites with Mary Elizabeth Winstead, who starred in this year's horror threequel Final Destination 3.
The film's title and the fact it's being released on Christmas might be its biggest draw much like the decision by Fox to release their remake of The Omen on June 6, 2006. The fortuitous of movie and release date certainly helped that and one can expect that the more cynical of holiday revelers might not mind seeing people slaughtered on Christmas Day.You gotta love the Weinsteins for catering to Jewish horror fans over the Christmas holiday week, first with Wes Craven's hugely successful Scream movies, then with lesser efforts like the long-delayed Darkness and the Aussie horror flick Wolf Creek. With Black Christmas, they come full circle, as they remake one of the movies that started the wave of slasher films that ultimately led to Wes Craven spoofing them in Scream.
This looks like it's going to be really sick. None of those tame PG-13 horror movies we've been seeing too many of, but more like the hack 'n' slash, blood and gore movies that horror fans really want to see, as seen by the success of Hostel earlier this year.
Cons: There have been way too many remakes in the last couple of years, and they may have finally run their course, especially with so many of them having the exact same plot, usually involving a bunch of teens getting killed in gruesome ways.
A number of Christian groups have complained about the movie's release on Christmas Day, showing that almost nothing has changed in 30 years, but oddly, that might actually do more to spur horror fans to go see this, especially if they have nothing better to do. But otherwise, this seems a bit too gratuitous and violent to be much of a draw over the holidays. Really, the title is the only thing that makes it worthy of its Christmas release.
Dimension Films is only releasing the movie in about 1,000 theatres, which is less than most of their other holiday horror films, and they don't seem to have enough confidence in it to really market it properly.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Final Destination 3 |
2/10/06 |
2,880 |
$19.17 |
$6,657 |
$54.10 |
|
Final Destination |
3/17/00 |
2,585 |
$10.02 |
$3,876 |
$53.30 |
|
Willard |
3/14/03 |
1,761 |
$4.01 |
$2,277 |
$6.88 |
|
When a Stranger Calls |
2/3/06 |
2,999 |
$21.61 |
$7,205 |
$47.86 |
|
Wolf Creek |
12/23/05 |
1,749 |
$4.91 |
$2,806 |
$16.12 |
|
Darkness |
12/24/04 |
1,700 |
$6.16 |
$3,625 |
$22.16 |
|
Scream 2 |
12/12/97 |
2,663 |
$33.00 |
$12,392 |
$101.36 |
|
Scream |
12/20/96 |
1,413 |
$6.35 |
$4,494 |
$103.03 |
Why I Should See It: You really would have to be a sick cookie to go see this movie on Christmas Day, but hey, even I need something to do on December 25, right?
Why Not: You're sick of the ridiculous amount of horror remakes.
Projections: It probably will do some a bit of business on Christmas Day and the days after that (probably around $3 to 5 million from Monday to Thursday) and then another $3 to 4 million over the weekend to wind up with roughly $15 to 16 million total.
There are a lot of other movies coming out in the next two weeks, and here are a few more highlights:
VENUS (Miramax) Opening December 21
Starring Peter O'Toole, Vanessa Redgrave, Richard Griffiths, Leslie Phillips, Jodie Whittaker
Directed by Roger Michell (Notting Hill, Changing Lanes, Enduring Love, The Mother); Written by Hanif Kureishi (The Mother, London Kills Me, My Beautiful Laundrette)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Romance
Rated R
Plot Summary: A 20-year-old girl (Jodie Whittaker) disrupts the lives of two elderly actors (Peter O'Toole, Leslie Phillips) when one of them (O'Toole of course) becomes smitten with her, leading them to an unorthodox relationship.
Of Note: Peter O'Toole has been getting raves for his performance as an aged actor who falls for his best friend's niece who is over 50 years younger than him.
Comparisons: Harold and Maude, My Beautiful Laundrette, The Mother, Driving Lessons
Why I Should See It: This could be Peter O'Toole's last great movie!
Why Not: His relationship with a 20-year-old girl is pretty creepy.
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)
PERFUME - THE STORY OF A MURDERER (Paramount/Dreamworks) Opening December 27
Starring Ben Whishaw, Alan Rickman, Rachel Hurd-Wood, Dustin Hoffman
Directed by Thomas Tykwer (Run Lola Run, Heaven, The Princess and the Warrior); Written by Tom Tykwer, Andrew Birkin, Bernd Eichinger
Genre: Drama, Thriller, Period
Rated R (at least)
Tagline: "He lived to find beauty. He killed to possess it."
Plot Summary: Jean-Baptiste Grenouille (Ben Whishaw) was an orphan born on the streets of Paris who has an amazing sense of smell, something that leads him to a desire to be a perfumer, except that he his greatest desire is capture the scent of France's most beautiful women, which usually involves killing them.
Of Note: Thomas Tykwer, one of Germany's most successful directors (maybe after Wolfgang Peterson) adapts Patrick Süskind's novel, one of Germany's best selling books, into what has become Germany's highest grossing films ever!
Comparisons: The Silence of the Lambs, Hannibal, Murder by Numbers,
Why I Should See It: Tykwer's amazing vision successfully integrates a serial killer film with a period piece.
Why Not: Peter O'Toole may be pretty creepy in Venus, but he has nothing on this guy. Ladies, if you smell good, you're as good as a goner.
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)
MISS POTTER (Weinstein Company) Opening December 29
Starring Renee Zellwegger, Ewan McGregor, Emily Watson
Directed by Chris Noonan (Babe); Written by Richard Maltby Jr. (debut)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Biography
Rated PG (?)
Tagline: "The life of Beatrix Potter is the most enchanting tale of all."
Plot Summary: Beatrix Potter (Renee Zellwegger) is an imaginative single woman from a wealthy family, who'd rather spend time writing, drawing and talking to her cute animal friends than finding a man. Yes, she's quite insane, but for some reason, a good-looking editor (Ewan McGregor) realizes that Beatrix's eccentricities are his ticket to wealth and fame.
Of Note: Renee Zellwegger takes on the role of legendary childrens' author Beatrix Potter in this humorous biopic based on her early days as an author/painter.
Comparisons: Finding Neverland, The Hours, Cold Mountain, Cinderella Man, Bridge Jones' Diary
Why I Should See It: You're either a really big fan of Renee Zellwegger or a really big fan of Beatix Potter.
Why Not: I'm sure you can figure it out.
Mini-Review (Coming Soon!)
OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:
ARTHUR AND THE INVISIBLES (The Weinstein Company) Luc Besson takes on the children's book "Arthur and the Minimoys" in this live action/CGI amalgam starring Charlie and the Chocolate Factory's Freddy Highmore as a boy who discovers a magical world of little people while trying to find treasure left by his grandfather. Featuring the voices of Madonna, Snoop Dogg, Robert De Niro and David Bowie, it'll get a one-week L.A. Oscar qualifying release before its wide release on January 12.
THE CASE OF THE GRINNING CAT (First Run/Icarus Films) Chris Marker, the eccentric French filmmaker of La Jetee, which inspired Terry Gilliam's 12 Monkeys, makes a pseudo-political documentary kind of about the mysterious graphiti cats that are painted all over Paris, but is really about the 2002 French election. It opens at the Film Forum on Wednesday.
THE DEAD GIRL (First Look) - Karen Moncrieff, director of Blue Car, tells five stories of women whose lives are affected by the discovery of a naked, mutilated body in the desert. The stories deal with the woman who finds the body (Toni Collette), the victim's mother (Marcia Gay Harden), her roommate (Kerry Washington), and the dead girl (Brittany Murphy) herself.
FACTORY GIRL (Weinstein Company) Sienna Miller plays model/actress Edie Segwick in George Hickenlooper's biopic about Andy Warhol's famous muse. Starring Guy Pearce as Andy Warhol and Hayden Christensen as Bob Dylan, it opens in L.A. on Dec. 29 to be eligible for Oscars.
MATTHEW BARNEY: NO RESTRAINT (IFC Films) Alison Chernick's documentary about avant garde artists/filmmaker Matthew Barney and his latest movie Drawing Restraint 9, which had him cavorting with Icelandic pop star Björk and building all sorts of strange structures on a Japanese whaling vessel. Opens at the IFC Center on Wednesday, Dec. 20. Mini-Review: Matthew Barney's Drawing Restraint 9 was an odd but beautiful film that didn't make much sense, but really didn't have to make much sense. Though things aren't that much clearer from the two or three times that Barney directly answers Chernick's questions about his work, it is interesting to watch him work and see how he created some of the amazing visuals from the film. And yes, some of the ideas behind it are clearer once you see the doc, but knowing what it was about doesn't necessarily make that a better film nor does it make this a particularly effective doc. Rating: 7/10
THE TIGER AND THE SNOW (Strand Releasing) Italian Oscar-winner Roberto Benigni takes on the Iraq War in this story set in 2003, in which he plays a Roman poet who travels to Baghdad to retrieve the woman he loves (Benigni's wife Nicoletta Braschi), who has been injured in a bomb explosion. It opens in New York and L.A on Dec. 29. Mini-Review: Since Italy's Crown Prince of Comedy had great success with a romantic comedy set during the Holocaust, it makes sense that he would update his playground to the current war in Iraq. Unfortunately, "Benigni Goes to Baghdad" is a pretty silly idea, and a bit more than bothersome considering that this war is still very much going on right now and really isn't much of a laughing matter. Still, Benigni finds a way to make light of things, while his wife must be counts her blessings that her character's coma keeps the audience from seeing her roll her eyes at her husband's annoying antics. You could give Benigni some credit for trying to be timely and relevent, but the things he goes through to get medicine for his dying wife are silly at first and then get progressively more ludicrous. When it comes down to it, Benigni's quest to find comedy in the Muslim world falls quite flat, because it's a misguided effort that didn't really need that location to have worked as a romantic comedy. Rating: 5.5/10
UNCONSCIOUS (Regent Releasing) Spain's second most perverse filmmaker Joaquín Oristrell (Reinas) returns with a period comedy set in the early 20th Century about the pseudo-sexual relationship between a man and his 9-month pregnant sister-in-law after the disappearance of his brother.
Next week, the Weekend Warrior takes off!! See you in 2007!
Copyright 2006 Edward Douglas
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